In 1798, economist Thomas Malthus introduced the Malthus trap, which suggested that human population growth would outpace the availability of resources like food. Malthus believed that unexpected events such as wars, disasters, and famines would restore population growth to a stable level. Today, the world's population has increased from 1bn to 8bn, but it has become evident that simply stopping population growth is not enough; a rapid decline in birth rates worldwide is also necessary.
Pablo Alvarez, using data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022, examined the decline in birth rates in the 49 most populous countries from 1950 to 2021, including Uzbekistan. The data showed that Uzbekistan's birth rate dropped from around 40 births per thousand people in the 1950s to approximately 23.55 in 2021, a decrease of 41%.
Similarly, birth rates have declined in every country on the list over the past 70 years, with China experiencing an 81% decrease and South Korea witnessing an 86% drop since 1950. Almost all countries in the dataset have seen double-digit declines in birth rates, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo being the only exception with a single-digit decline.
The decline in birth rates is generally viewed as a positive outcome of socioeconomic development. As countries progress and living standards improve, societal norms and aspirations change. Factors such as expanded education and career opportunities for women contribute to delayed family planning or fewer children. Urbanization also plays a significant role in declining birth rates. Additionally, increased access to family planning services and contraceptives since the 1970s has contributed to the decrease in birth rates.
The consequences of declining birth rates are primarily seen in the rapid aging of populations, which is already occurring worldwide. The proportion of elderly individuals compared to the working-age population is increasing due to the low number of children being born. This demographic imbalance poses challenges for social security, healthcare, and pension systems.
Furthermore, declining fertility can impact the labor market and economic productivity, resulting in a shortage of skilled workers and a decrease in innovation. Depopulation also leads to reduced consumer demand, which may necessitate a restructuring of the current development model, as consumer demand is a crucial component of the global economy.
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