Cases of diabetes could double by 2050 to affect 1.3bn people, based on a new study published in The Lancet, Euronews reports.
The research highlights the alarming rise in the number of people living with diabetes globally and warns of the urgent need to address this growing crisis. The study predicts that if no action is taken, the number of individuals suffering from the disease will more than double from 529mn in 2021 to over 1.3bn in 2050.
Diabetes is a chronic illness characterized by elevated blood sugar levels, which can result in severe damage to various organs such as the heart, blood vessels, eyes, kidneys, and nerves. The most common form of the disease is type 2 diabetes, accounting for approximately 96% of cases in 2021. Type 2 diabetes occurs when the body either doesn't produce enough insulin or becomes resistant to its effects.
The study reveals that rates of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes are increasing among young people worldwide, leading to a significant generational surge in the disease. Additionally, more than 20mn women experienced diabetes or high blood sugar levels during pregnancy in 2021, contributing to the overall global burden of the disease.
Dr. Shivani Agarwal, the series lead and associate professor at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York, emphasized that diabetes remains one of the most significant public health threats globally and will continue to escalate over the next three decades.
“Diabetes remains one of the biggest public health threats of our time and is set to grow aggressively over the coming three decades in every country, age group, and sex, posing a serious challenge to healthcare systems worldwide,” Dr. Shivani Agarwal stated.
The study also sheds light on the impact of structural racism and global inequalities on diabetes rates, particularly in high-income countries like the United States. In such countries, diabetes rates are 1.5 times higher among minority groups. The author of the study, Professor Leonard Egede from the Medical College of Wisconsin argues that racist policies, including residential segregation, affect where individuals live and their access to sufficient and healthy food, as well as healthcare services. These factors contribute to widening diabetes inequities and result in significant gaps in care and clinical outcomes for disenfranchised racial and ethnic groups.
”This cascade of widening diabetes inequity leads to substantial gaps in care and clinical outcomes for people from historically disenfranchised racial and ethnic groups, including Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous people,” Professor Leonard Egede noted.
The study predicts that by 2045, three-quarters of adults living with diabetes will be in low and middle-income countries, where access to care for the disease is limited compared to high-income countries. Diabetes death rates in these countries are also double the rates in wealthier nations.
The situation is also concerning in European countries, as estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that approximately 32.3mn adults were diagnosed with diabetes in the European Union in 2019. The prevalence of diabetes varies among EU countries, ranging from 10.4% in Germany and 9.8% in Portugal to 3.8% in Lithuania and 3.2% in Ireland. On average, 6.2% of adults in the EU have diabetes.
The Global Burden of Disease Study, which accompanies the Lancet series, highlighted that the number of people living with diabetes in Western European countries could increase by 62.3% between 2021 and 2050. Central European countries could see a rise of 38.8% during the same period. The number of people living with diabetes could reach more than 10mn in Germany, more than 8mn in Italy and Spain, and more than 6mn in France by 2050.
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