Central Asia is once again caught in the crosshairs of global geopolitics, with the future of its connectivity projects increasingly reliant on developments beyond its borders. As highlighted by Oleg Abdurashitov, Public Policy and Government Affairs expert at Outpost Eurasia, these factors could impact the region’s strategic efforts to enhance its role in global trade.
The escalating tensions between the European Union (EU) and China over electric vehicle (EV) tariffs could have profound consequences for Central Asia's trade corridors. Should this standoff evolve into a full-blown trade war, it could undermine the potential of the Middle Corridor—one of the region's key east-west transit routes. Additionally, the strained relations between the EU and Georgia and Azerbaijan may further complicate the EU’s push for deeper economic integration in Central Asia, clashing with the political ambitions in the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, the situation surrounding the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is even more precarious. This vital southbound route depends heavily on access to Iranian ports, and the growing Israel-Iran conflict threatens to derail the entire project, potentially cutting off a key link between Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. An alternative path through Afghanistan is equally uncertain, as it requires not only significant financial investments but also political stability in the region—something that remains elusive under the Taliban regime. The uncertain relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan further complicate this already fragile route.
These external challenges could solidify the existing trade ties northward with Russia and eastward with China. As Central Asia’s two largest trade partners, Russia and China account for about half of the region’s trade turnover, with China surpassing Russia as the primary partner in four out of five Central Asian nations. The pursuit of trade diversification and infrastructure development will inevitably need to account for the economic and political sway that both Russia and China hold in the region.
While hopes for building Central Asia’s intra-regional connectivity through international corridors may seem optimistic, the reality is that these large-scale projects often hinge on external powers whose commitments are rarely long-term. The ill-fated New Silk Road (NSR) initiative, which the US military envisioned as a way to transform Afghanistan into a Central Asian trade hub, is a stark reminder of the challenges.
Yet, unlike NSR, the countries in Central Asia now have a vested interest in making these new trade corridors a reality. Moving forward, the region must consider how to enhance intra-regional connectivity and diversify trade even if the grand vision of reviving the ancient Silk Road fades into the background. It may require a pragmatic shift in focus—one that prioritizes sustainable regional cooperation over reliance on external actors.
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