The Middle East has long been a center of geopolitical rivalry and armed conflict between Israel and Iran. Currently, the region is experiencing a significant phase of growing divergence, with tensions escalating in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen, largely manifesting increase in hostility between Iran and Israel.
It was demonstrated by Iran's missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024, the country launched missile strikes against Israel, and the operation, named “Sadiq-2,” was ordered by Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), from the Combat Room. This event marks a pivotal shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, with significant implications not only for the Middle East and South Asia but also for Central Asia.
As tensions rise, Central Asian countries must navigate a complex setting of security threats, shifting alliances, and economic challenges.
Hence, the ballistic missile strike is part of a broader conflict shaped by historical disputes, strategic rivalries, and intricate alliances. As the situation develops, the consequences of these events extend beyond the immediate regional players, influencing Central Asia in terms of geopolitics, security, and economics. Understanding these impacts is crucial for policymakers, scholars, and security analysts as they navigate the complexities of international relations in an increasingly multipolar world.
Central Asian countries have varying levels of engagement with both Iran and Israel in areas such as diplomacy, security, and trade. Their involvement in the Middle East, which is fundamentally focused on combating extremism, advancing defense technologies, and enhancing cybersecurity capabilities, enables them to remain neutral during the Iran-Israel conflict.
Furthermore, these countries have an opportunity to contribute to long-term stability and peace efforts in the Middle East. Any departure from neutrality or taking sides in the conflict could diminish their influence and role in the region. Before delving into the impact of the missile attack carried out by Iran on Israel on October 1, 2024, and its implications for Central Asian countries, we will first explore a brief overview of the historical context of relations between Iran and Israel.
Historical Context of Iran-Israel Relations
The long-standing enmity between Iran and Israel is deeply rooted in ideological (religious extremism and opposition to democracy), political, and geopolitical conflicts. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which led to the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy, Iran emerged as a staunch opponent and regional adversary of Israel, positioning itself as a leader in resistance to Western imperialism. Iran's support for various jihadist groups, particularly militias backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), further solidified its role as a key actor opposing Israeli influence.
Some of these groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Liwa Fatemiyoun in Syria, and the Ansarullah Houthi rebels in Yemen. Thus, several major events over the years have escalated tensions between Iran and Israel.
1: 1982 Lebanon War: Known as Israel's invasion of Lebanon, the conflict aimed to dismantle the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but instead led to the emergence of Hezbollah, a militia strongly supported by Iran. This marked the beginning of a protracted proxy conflict between the two nations.
2: Iran's Nuclear Program: Iran's nuclear ambitions, initially launched in the 1950s with U.S. support under the "Atoms for Peace" program, have been a major source of global tension, particularly between Iran and the West. After the 1979 revolution, cooperation on nuclear development ceased, and Iran pursued its program covertly. Israel views the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a grave existential threat, pushing for international action to prevent Iran from acquiring such weapons. The ongoing enrichment of uranium and Iran’s secretive activities have prompted consistent surveillance by the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), seeking to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear capabilities and thus counter a growing threat to Israel in the region.
3: Regional Proxy Wars: Iran’s involvement in conflicts across the Middle East, particularly in Syria’s civil war and its support for Shia militias in Iraq, has further complicated its relations with Israel. These conflicts have led to direct confrontations, such as Iran’s missile strikes on Israel, most recently on October 1, 2024. Iran’s strategy, using loyal militias to counter Israeli influence, has resulted in prolonged proxy wars, adding a sectarian dimension (Shia versus Sunni, and Muslim versus Jewish) to the broader regional power struggle. This proxy war also has far-reaching diplomatic, security, and economic consequences for Central Asia and beyond, contributing to the region’s destabilization and fueling migration flows toward Europe.
The ideological, strategic, and military rivalry between Iran and Israel continues to shape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, with consequences that extend well beyond the immediate conflict zone. This protracted enmity not only affects regional security but also has economic implications, influencing international relations and migration patterns, particularly as instability drives people to seek refuge in Europe. Iran’s recent missile strikes on Israel and the related rhetoric signify a potential shift towards more direct military confrontation, which could have negative diplomatic, security, and economic impacts on Central Asian countries. The repercussions for Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape may manifest in respective modes.
a: Realignment of Alliances
- The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel might force Central Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, to reconsider their traditionally neutral stance. As Iran emerges as a regional power and supports various jihadist groups and militias backed by the IRGC. These nations may feel pressured to side with Western powers, particularly the U.S., to safeguard their interests against potential Iranian expansionism.
- The U.S. might increase diplomatic and military engagement with Central Asian nations to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region. This could lead to stronger military cooperation and intelligence-sharing agreements.
- On the other hand, Russia, which plays a significant role in maintaining stability in Central Asia, might deepen its military and economic ties with these countries to ensure, they remain within its sphere of influence. However, Iran's growing influence may complicate Russia's relationships with Central Asian states, especially those wary of Iran's intentions.
b: Emerging Security Frameworks
- With rising tensions in the Middle East, Central Asian countries may seek to establish new security frameworks. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), led by Russia, may reassess its security needs as external threats from Iran or Afghanistan increase.
- There are also concerns about the ties between the Taliban and Iran, including potential military cooperation, which could destabilize Afghanistan and extend extremist threats into Central Asia. The growing influence of groups such as Al-Qaeda, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and ISIS—fueled by the Middle East conflicts—poses a real threat to the region.
c: Regional Security Initiatives
- Central Asian countries may engage in joint military exercises or bilateral security agreements to strengthen their defense capabilities against external threats and internal instability. These initiatives could aim to improve military readiness and coordination.
- Given Iran's support for jihadist groups, Central Asian countries are likely to prioritize counterterrorism efforts, cooperating with regional and global powers to address the growing threat posed by extremist organizations.
d: Increasing Extremism Threat to Central Asia
- The Iran-Israel conflict directly impacts the security landscape in Central Asia. Iran’s use of proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Ansarullah Houthis serves as a counterbalance to Israel’s growing support for militant groups like ISIS and ETIM. These conflicts contribute to sectarian and ideological tensions (Shia vs. Sunni, and Muslim vs. Jewish), potentially spreading into Central Asia.
- Extremist groups in Central Asia may draw inspiration from Iran’s proxy warfare, increasing recruitment and operational activities aimed at destabilizing regional governments.
Key Challenges for Central Asia
- The Rise of Extremist Groups
- Extremist groups operating in Central Asia could be emboldened by Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics. This could lead to increased recruitment efforts and more sophisticated operational planning against local governments.
- Instability in Afghanistan
- The resurgence of the Taliban and its potential ties with Iran presents a dual threat to Central Asian states. This could lead to spillover violence and influence attempts by the Taliban beyond Afghanistan’s borders, prompting regional instability.
- In response to growing security concerns, Central Asian countries might prioritize militarization of their borders, especially those bordering Afghanistan and Iran.
- Rising Military Expenditures
- Central Asian countries may allocate more resources to their military budgets to bolster border security and respond to the potential threats posed by Iranian-backed militias or Israeli-supported extremist organizations.
- Border Security Measures
- Strengthening surveillance technology and border control efforts will be crucial to preventing the spread of extremism. Central Asian nations might also pursue intelligence-sharing agreements to improve their response capabilities. The increasing threat of extremism, as various groups exploit the chaos, poses significant challenges to regional stability in Central Asia. Understanding and addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts in diplomacy, security, and counterterrorism, especially as Iran-Israel tensions continue to escalate.
The Iran-Israel conflict, its proxy wars, and their economic impact on Central Asian countries
Disruption of Trade Routes
The Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt established trade routes, which would affect the economies of Central Asian countries that rely on trade with Western and Middle Eastern markets. One key concern is the potential impact on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global economic project that could face significant regional security challenges during Middle Eastern conflicts.
There is a possibility that the BRI could face similar challenges in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, namely China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The "Belt" refers to overland routes connecting through Central Asia via ancient trade paths, while the "Road" represents the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, which links sea routes through Southeast Asia to South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Central Asia plays a crucial role in the BRI’s overland section, particularly in the “Belt” that spans the region, connecting China to Europe.
Key BRI partners in Central Asia include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The initiative seeks to develop infrastructure like roads, railways, and pipelines to strengthen economic ties across Asia, with significant investment in energy and transportation projects.
However, if proxy wars and militant extremism in the Middle East and South Asia intensify, these issues could spill into Central Asia, making the implementation of the BRI in the region a major challenge. This could undesirably impact factors such as: -
1: Trade Route Stability: Key transport corridors connecting Central Asia to global markets might become unsafe due to potential military actions or increased regional tensions.
2: Impact on the Energy Sector: Central Asian countries, especially Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, rely heavily on energy exports. Disruptions to trade routes or rising regional instability could reduce energy demand, hurting national revenues.
The Iran-Israel Conflict and Central Asia’s Response to the Middle East Crisis
Before discussing the reactions of Central Asian countries to the Iran-Israel conflict and the broader Middle East crisis, it's important to first examine the economic, security, and geopolitical involvement of both Iran and Israel in Central Asia.
Iran and Central Asia
Iran's political, military, and economic ties with Central Asian countries have rapidly expanded in recent years, forming through strategic collaborations, infrastructure projects, and shared geopolitical interests.
Iran's (Chabahar port) also plays a crucial role by providing countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan direct access to the sea, boosting their trade potential. By 2023, Iran’s (non-oil) trade with members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, exceeded $21bn in the first half of the year alone. This reflects Iran’s strategy to diversify its economy in response to Western sanctions.
Iran is also involved in regional security efforts, participating in projects like the Kyrgyzstan-Iran railway to improve connectivity.
Additionally, Iran’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union has deepened economic ties with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Politically, Iran is committed to expanding these relationships, particularly in response to Western sanctions. It includes investing in energy projects in Tajikistan and partnering with Central Asian countries on regional development plans. Overall, Iran’s relationships with Central Asia are expanding through economic projects and geopolitical initiatives like the INSTC, aiming to strengthen its political and military presence.
Israel and Central Asia
Israel’s political, military, and economic relations with Central Asia have steadily developed since the 1990s and have shown significant growth in recent years.
-Political Relations: Israel has established diplomatic relations with five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. These relationships are built on shared concerns about extremism, which poses a common threat in the region. Israel has provided expertise in counterterrorism and intelligence sharing, positioning itself as a valuable partner to these countries. The joint efforts to maintain stability and combat extremism have fostered closer diplomatic and security cooperation between Israel and Central Asia.
-Military and Security Cooperation: Israel has provided military and technical assistance to Central Asian countries, especially in the realm of security. For example, Israel’s sale of arms to Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demonstrated its military ties in the region. Israel’s advanced defense technologies and cyber-security capabilities are also of interest to Central Asian governments, which see these as essential tools for combating domestic and regional security threats.
Furthermore, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism cooperation have strengthened military relations between Israel and countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
- Economic and Trade Agreements: Israel has also sought to strengthen economic ties with Central Asia. For instance, Kazakhstan and Israel have engaged in bilateral trade and investment, particularly in agriculture, water technology, and energy sectors. Israel’s expertise in water management and irrigation holds special value for Central Asian countries that face water scarcity issues. Talks have been underway to expand free trade agreements between Israel and these countries, promising economic benefits for both sides.
Conclusion
In the face of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and broader Middle Eastern crises, Central Asian countries will likely adopt a diplomatic approach, considering factors, mainly balanced Diplomatic efforts. Central Asian countries may strive to maintain a neutral stance while preserving ties with both Western and Eastern powers to safeguard their own interests.
Active Participation in Multilateral Forums is an alternative expected approach, the Central Asian countries may consider. Central Asian countries will likely engage in regional security discussions to mitigate concerns over the expansion of the Iran-Israel conflict and to promote stability, especially concerning Afghanistan.
References:
1: How Does Central Asia Cooperate With Iran to Access World Markets?
2: Central Asian states look to Iran as they seek to expand regional transit corridors
3: Central Asian Middle Corridor Expansion
4: Iran-SCO Trade Exchange Hits about $39 Billion in 11 Months
6: New Central Asian Leaders Look to Balance Relations with Major Powers
Written by: Ajmal Sohail
Ajmal Sohail is a graduate in terrorism and extremism studies from both Leiden University in the Netherlands and Maryland University in the United States; he works in the meantime as an intelligence analyst and Counter-terrorism expert. He does remain well connected with the political players, allowing him to gain insights into the extremely complex geopolitical situation in Central and the South Asia regions. He is the co-founder and co-president of the Counter Narco-Terrorism Alliance Germany, directing its intelligence and counter-terrorism portfolios. His analysis is regularly featured in various international news outlets, he even runs his own sources to get the most classified Intel.
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