German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a high-profile visit to Uzbekistan on September 15 , where he was warmly received by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the historic Registan Square in Samarkand. The visit culminated in the signing of a Joint Declaration and eight additional bilateral agreements, marking a significant step in strengthening relations between the two countries.
Scholz’s visit is notable as he is only the second German Chancellor to travel to Central Asia and Uzbekistan. This raises pertinent questions about the underlying motives and objectives of his visit. What are Germany’s political and economic interests in Uzbekistan?
To shed light on this, Daryo consulted several experts to explore the broader implications of this diplomatic engagement.
Economic analyst Shuhrat Rasul highlighted that while Kazakhstan remains Germany’s largest trade partner in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is gaining increasing importance.
"Germany, as a leading EU nation, has traditionally relied on Kazakhstan for its trade in the region. However, Uzbekistan is now emerging as a key partner. Although German investments are substantial in Kazakhstan, there is growing potential for similar investments in Uzbekistan," Rasul noted.
Germany has made substantial investments in Kazakhstan, and there is growing potential for similar investments in Uzbekistan. Rasul explained that economic interests often drive political strategies. The European Union, with Germany at the forefront, is working to mitigate the economic influence of Russia and China in Central Asia.
"By diversifying its investments and partnerships, Germany aims to balance the regional power dynamics. While German investments in Uzbekistan may not match those of China, they are crucial for maintaining this balance," he said.
Political scientist Farhod Karimov explained why Germany's investments in Uzbekistan were limited for a period. He attributed this to the Andijan events in 2005, which led to a cooling of relations.
"Germany was among the first to engage with newly independent Central Asian nations, particularly Uzbekistan, after the Soviet Union's collapse. Initially, Germany focused on social cooperation, establishing educational institutions like the Goethe Institute and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Uzbekistan. However, following the 2005 events, Uzbekistan’s increasing isolation from the international community led to a shift in Western focus toward Kazakhstan. As a result, Kazakhstan became the primary partner for German investment in the region, and Uzbekistan lagged behind for nearly a decade," Karimov noted.
He added that Germany renewed its interest in Uzbekistan after 2016. The 2019 visit of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Germany and his talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled a positive turn in relations, marking Uzbekistan’s re-engagement with Europe.
Farhod Karimov also noted that Europe previously criticized Central Asian countries for allegedly aiding Russia in evading economic sanctions. However, European perspectives have evolved.
"Europe now understands that turning away from Russia overnight is not feasible. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged the complexities of the situation during his visit to Uzbekistan, saying, 'I now understand what the situation is.' Europe has come to realize that Central Asian nations, including Uzbekistan, are influenced by major powers like Russia, Iran, and China," Karimov explained.
This shifting understanding has led to increased European interest in the region. Germany, in particular, has renewed its focus on Uzbekistan. The revival of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the heightened activity of Deutsche Bank in Uzbekistan reflect this renewed engagement. German investors are recognizing the potential in Uzbekistan, especially given the country's 37mn-strong population. Furthermore, the success of a young Uzbek student in a German language Olympiad highlights the growing human potential, which is attracting German capital. German language education is now present in over 900 schools in Uzbekistan, signaling a promising future for cooperation.
Bilateral relations between Germany and Uzbekistan have traditionally been broad, spanning various sectors. Formal cooperation began on December 31, 1991, with significant visits from leaders such as President Islam Karimov to Germany in 1993, 1995, and 2011, and German President Roman Herzog's visit to Uzbekistan in 1995. Despite a cooling of relations after the Andijan events in 2005, Uzbekistan permitted Germany to use the air base in Termiz for military operations in Afghanistan, with rent increasing to €15.95mn euros per year by 2011.
"The West is developing strategies to reduce the influence of Russia in Central Asia. However, the West, including Germany, cannot make grand promises due to its own challenges. Uzbekistan maintains a pragmatic foreign policy, seeking to enhance trade and transport relations with Western countries while avoiding becoming a pawn in geopolitical games," Karimov concluded.
In January 2019, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan made his first official visit to Germany. During his trip to Berlin, Mirziyoyev met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Angela Merkel. This visit resulted in agreements on projects valued at over €8bn. Later that year, in May 2019, President Steinmeier reciprocated with an official visit to Uzbekistan.
As of the end of August 2023, trade between Uzbekistan and Germany reached a volume of $708.3mn. This included $56.6mn in exports and $651.6mn in imports. Germany's share in Uzbekistan’s total trade turnover was 1.8%, with 2.8% in imports and 0.3% in exports.
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