EIA forecats Kazakhstan oil production to 2.08mn barrels per day in 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil production forecast for Kazakhstan on June 2024, projecting a production of approximately 2.08mn barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025. This revised outlook marks a slight downward adjustment of 0.01 mb/d from the previous month's assessment.

For 2024, the EIA anticipates Kazakhstan's crude production to reach 1.95 mb/d, setting the stage for a year-over-year increase of 0.13 mb/d by 2025. The agency further predicts that the country's oil output will experience fluctuations throughout 2025. Production is expected to peak at 2.11 mb/d in the second quarter, decline slightly to 2.01 mb/d in the third quarter, and then rise again to 2.19 mb/d in the fourth quarter.

In comparison, Kazakhstan's oil production for 2023 has been set at 1.96 mb/d by the EIA. This figure aligns with recent statements by Kazakhstan's Minister of Energy, Almassadam Satkaliev, who noted that the country's oil output in 2023 was approximately 90mn tons. 

“In terms of oil production volumes, we initially planned about 92-93mn tons. In fact, we produced about 90mn tons. Firstly, this was due to repairs at large oil and gas production enterprises. We also carried out active work with the participation of the oil industry to voluntarily reduce production volumes in connection with our obligations within the framework of OPEC+,” Satkaliev explained.

Out of the total oil produced, around 18mn tons were allocated for domestic consumption, while approximately 56mn tons were exported via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

Looking ahead, Kazakhstan aims to boost its oil production to 90.3 million tons in 2024, reflecting the country's ongoing efforts to enhance its oil output despite recent shortfalls.