Turkey's opposition secured a historic victory in local elections held on March 31, dealing a substantial blow to the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, emerged triumphant, surpassing AK nationwide and claiming control over the country's major cities. As per the latest tally at 11 PM local time, CHP garnered 37.2% of the overall vote, while AK trailed slightly behind at 36.2%, as it was disclosed by The Economist.
The most significant wins for the opposition were observed in Turkey's largest cities, where CHP candidates clinched decisive victories. In Istanbul, a pivotal battleground, incumbent CHP mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu secured another term with over 80% of ballots counted, receiving 50.5% of the vote. In comparison, his AK rival Murat Kurum, a former urban affairs minister, garnered 40.7% of the vote. This outcome marks a significant setback for Erdogan and AK, who had sought to reclaim control of Istanbul, a city they had governed for twenty-five years until Imamoglu's unexpected victory in 2019.
However, the magnitude of the opposition's success extended beyond Istanbul. In Ankara, the capital and Turkey's second-largest city, CHP's incumbent mayor, Mansur Yavaş, led AK's candidate by a striking margin of 25 percentage points. Similarly, in Izmir, the country's third-largest city, the CHP's mayoral candidate maintained an 11-point lead. The opposition also made substantial inroads in small towns and villages, traditionally considered AK strongholds. According to Evren Balta, a professor at Ozyegin University,
"The electoral map of Turkey has been transformed."
The outcome of these elections is expected to reshape national politics, potentially impacting Erdogan's ambitions for constitutional changes that could extend his presidency. A victory for AK would have facilitated the introduction of a new constitution, aimed at prolonging Erdogan's tenure. However, the magnitude of AK's losses, particularly in Istanbul and other major cities, has dampened enthusiasm for such reforms. As Berk Esen, an academic at Sabanci University, remarked,
"This is off the books now."
The remarkable success of the CHP in these elections, compared to its disappointing performance in the previous parliamentary elections, can be largely attributed to economic factors. Despite assurances from Erdogan following last year's presidential and parliamentary elections, Turkey's economy continues to face challenges. Despite significant interest rate hikes totaling more than 40 percentage points, annual inflation has surged, nearing 70%. This economic downturn has eroded Erdogan's ability to offer voters the financial incentives that had previously bolstered his popularity.
As noted by Ms. Balta, "Because of the turn to economic orthodoxy, people are feeling the economic pain even more than before."
The significance of Istanbul in Turkish politics cannot be overstated, with its mayorship often regarded as the country's second most influential position after the presidency. Home to 16 mn people, including migrants from across Turkey, Istanbul represents nearly 20% of the nation's population and over 30% of its economic output. Control over the city's substantial budget and patronage networks holds immense political significance. Imamoglu's resounding victory in Istanbul positions him as a prominent figure within the opposition and potentially sets the stage for a leadership role within the CHP and a presidential bid in 2028.
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