For the first time, the annual average global temperature has risen beyond the 1.5°C mark, as reported by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. In 2015, world leaders pledged to limit the long-term temperature increase to 1.5°C, a target deemed critical to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change. While this year-long breach does not violate the Paris Agreement, it does inch the world closer to surpassing this long-term limit.
Despite this alarming development, scientists maintain that urgent measures to reduce carbon emissions can still curb the rate of warming. Prof Sir Bob Watson, former chair of the UN’s climate body, expressed concern over the situation, highlighting the global occurrences of floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires within this year of 1.5°C warming.
The period from February 2023 to January 2024 witnessed a warming of 1.52°C, a figure that starkly contrasts with previous years. This latest climate warning coincides with the Labour Party’s decision to abandon its £28bn per annum green investment plan, and the Conservatives’ delay in meeting key targets last September.
Consequently, the UK’s two primary parties have retreated from the kind of commitments that climate scientists argue are necessary on a global scale to prevent the worst impacts of warming.
In another alarming development, the world’s sea surface has reached its highest ever recorded average temperature, a testament to the pervasive nature of climate records. This is particularly significant as ocean temperatures usually peak a month later.
While scientific groups may differ slightly on the exact extent of temperature increase, there is unanimous agreement that the world is currently experiencing its warmest period since the inception of modern records, and likely for a much longer duration.
Keeping long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - a time before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels - has emerged as a crucial goal in international efforts to combat climate change. A pivotal UN report in 2018 highlighted that the risks posed by climate change, including intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, and loss of wildlife, escalate significantly at 2°C of warming compared to 1.5°C.
Why Did We Surpass 1.5°C This Year?
The long-term warming trend is undeniably driven by human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, which release greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. This activity accounts for the majority of the past year’s warming.
Is It Still Possible to Curb Global Warming?
With the current rate of emissions, the Paris Agreement’s objective of restricting warming to 1.5°C as a long-term average could be breached within the next decade. This would be a significant milestone, but scientists argue it wouldn’t represent a precipice beyond which climate change becomes uncontrollable.
The effects of climate change will continue to intensify with every minor increase in warming. The extreme heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and floods experienced over the past 12 months have provided a glimpse of this.
An additional half a degree, the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, significantly heightens the risks of crossing so-called tipping points. These are thresholds within the climate system that, if surpassed, could lead to swift and potentially irreversible changes.
For instance, if the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets crossed a tipping point, their potential runaway collapse could lead to catastrophic rises in global sea levels over the ensuing centuries.
However, researchers are eager to stress that humans can still influence the world’s warming trajectory. The world has made some progress, with green technologies like renewables and electric vehicles flourishing in many parts of the world.
This has meant that some of the very worst-case scenarios of 4°C warming or more this century, thought possible a decade ago, are now considered much less likely, based on current policies and pledges.
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