Central Asia is of great strategic importance for world politics and economics as it is located at the crossroads between Europe, Asia and the Arab world. However, the region also faces a number of serious threats that could undermine its stability and development. Experts from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan shared their vision of the situation and possible ways to solve these problems.
Kazakhstan
Taisiya Marmontova, Kazakh political scientist
Central Asia is practically no different from the main regions of the world. Therefore, the same threats, both classic and new, apply to us. Classic threats include military security. But, in general, there is no pronounced threat of military conflict. There are also threats associated with terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, but which are quite successfully resolved within the framework of the activities of both law enforcement agencies and international activities, including within the framework of the SCO and CSTO.
As for new security threats, the situation here is much more complicated. Environmental threats are serious for us, namely the lack of drinking water. Central Asia is one of the eight regions that are experiencing and will continue to experience a shortage of drinking water. This is the forecast of the Asian Development Bank. Our drinking pools, the main part, are stressful. Accordingly, we need to work on this. Another important point is the issue of food security. Although we do not have a direct threat of famine, we do have environmental degradation and issues related to economic security - the quality of food and the availability of products that we can produce ourselves. We are very dependent on imports. It is worth noting that the situation here is quite different in the countries of Central Asia. In general, if we talk about the threat of famine, this issue may affect Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Because it is associated with high levels of poverty. If he speaks about Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, then the situation there is better.
How can the region protect itself in the face of 21st-century threats?
100% no way. But, in general, we can say that the best weapon here to reduce risks and counteract external and internal pressure is cooperation, information and interaction.
That is, accordingly, this is active work in international structures, the development of diplomacy and finding tools and ways for cooperation that will allow us to solve big problems together. Because it is very difficult to face the risk alone.
It is impossible not to succumb to pressure from major powers. The countries of Central Asia are the so-called middle power; therefore, it is useless to directly resist the pressure of super players such as Russia, China, the USA, and the European Union. Because they are outplaying us in terms of power parameters, in terms of economic power and in terms of the set of soft power tools. But what Kazakhstan is now demonstrating, an example of a multi-vector foreign policy, is the way to not succumb to threats, to blackmail and to maintain your own interests. That is, to be equidistant, maneuver, use flexible negotiation strategies and, above all, interact with each other.
Kyrgyzstan
Grigory Mikhailov
Editor-in-Chief of the Logistan telegram channel, expert on Central Asia
The list of threats to Central Asia is quite wide. We can highlight threats associated with natural disasters and climatic events: mudflows, desertification, etc.
It is also necessary to highlight the threats associated with human activity, for example, the high level of wear and tear of strategically important infrastructure facilities. This can now be observed in Kyrgyzstan, in Kazakhstan there are problems, for example, related to energy.
It is also necessary to pay attention to the threats associated with possible armed clashes between regional countries. Something that is connected, for example, with the unresolved border problem between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Population Growth
In addition, it is worth highlighting population growth. At the same time, there is a shortage of land, water and government support.
There is also a risk of growing extremist sentiments, the possibility of political crises that could result in armed clashes - the list is very wide.
Regarding how the region can help itself, here again is a large set of measures that should have been taken 20 years ago, starting from their prevention and ending with investing a large amount of money, effort and resources in solving the problem of energy or water shortage.
Costly problems
Solving the most pressing problems for the region requires the investment of tens of billions of dollars, significant political will, and coordination between countries. In addition, it is also possible to take rather unpopular measures that some of the population will oppose. This is a rather complicated question.
An example of a topic that generates a significant number of problems and has a complex solution is the unresolved border issue between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Any attempt to resolve it through compromise inevitably leads to an aggravation of the political situation and reputational damage for the authorities of a particular country. The unresolved nature of this issue sharply increases the risk of armed clashes on the border.
Dzhumagulov Baktybek
Director of the Center for Strategic Studies of Eurasia, political scientist
Internal factors are key risks and security threats, the important question is where do they come from? Usually they are associated not with one factor, but with several. Chaotic struggle for power, political differences in society, encroachment by extremist religious forces, regional strife, ethnic contradictions and so on - all of them can be the reason.
In addition, among the threats it is worth highlighting external threats: international terrorism, radical ideology and military confrontation over natural resources and territory.
Since internal problems pose the greatest risk, the main way to maintain security and stability in Central Asia must be to eliminate them. Even the barrier against external dangers must be built primarily within countries. Actually, the states of Central Asia are increasingly aware of this, and reforms should be aimed at this.
Key elements of reforms
The key elements of reforms should be economic development, poverty eradication, fight against corruption, social justice, improving the living standards of the population and ensuring national development and social stability. Of course, this will be a long and painful process, and success will not be achieved overnight.
One of the key mechanisms for maintaining stability and security in Eurasia is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Over the years of its existence, the SCO has acquired significant political weight and authority on the world stage. In connection with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the coming to power of a new political leadership in this country in 2021, extremely pessimistic scenarios for the development of events emerge.
Regional challenges and SCO
There is a high probability of exacerbation of regional challenges and threats in the form of terrorism, drug smuggling, illegal migration, and humanitarian catastrophe. The SCO, being an important element of the Eurasian security architecture, has good potential to counter these threats.
At the organization’s anniversary summit in September 2021 in Dushanbe, a common position was developed. All SCO members advocated solving the Afghan problem through political and diplomatic means and emphasized the need to form an inclusive government. Iran, as a full participant, has become an additional advantage for the organization in solving regional problems. The Iran factor, which has a significant impact on the development of Afghanistan, may become one of the key factors in building relations with the new Afghan authorities.
Thus, the SCO has significant integration potential in the security sphere and should play its positive role in the Afghan problem.
Cooperation for preserving peace
Strengthening cooperation in Central Asia in modern conditions is extremely necessary. Thus, for all countries in the region, the most pressing issue is internal political stability and security.
Drug trafficking and possible threats from Afghanistan are relevant for all countries of Central Asia.
In the context of a changing picture of the world, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sanctions against the Russian Federation and the intensification of external players, the countries of the Central Asian region are facing increased food and energy security risks. These challenges are relevant this year.
Only joint defense activities, exercises, as well as actions within organizations such as the CSTO will be able to secure the countries of Central Asia from various threats.
This again requires integration and multilateral cooperation within various platforms - the CSTO, SCO, CIS, EAEU and a number of others.
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