Eldaniz Gusseinov, a foreign policy analyst specializing in European and international studies, provided insightful commentary to Daryo on the evolving geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia, with a particular focus on Kazakhstan. His analysis comes in the context of a statement by the president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during a recent meeting of the Council of Spirituality and Enlightenment in Uzbekistan.
"We are all witnesses that the powerful centers of the world, which used to protect their goals and interests mainly through diplomacy and politics, have now turned to the path of open pressure, confrontation and conflict," remarked President Mirziyoyev during the meeting.
Gusseinov writes:
Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's observation that world powers are increasingly resorting to force in resolving conflicts is particularly relevant for Central Asian countries, though the impact varies by state. Currently, Kazakhstan is most affected, with Russia seeking to expand its influence there in various sectors, notably in economics. Concurrently, the European Union is also intensifying its focus on Kazakhstan, as reported by Politico, choosing it as one of four countries for enhanced cooperation, amidst the growing influence of China and Russia in the region.
This situation sets the stage for potential economic conflicts in Kazakhstan, especially between Russian and EU interests in expanding their respective commercial organizations. Unlike Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan has the flexibility to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy, not being a member of the EAEU and CSTO. This positions Uzbekistan uniquely in the global power play, offering ample opportunities for economic project development with access to markets in Central Asia and other CIS countries.
The region also faces the risk of spillover effects from peripheral conflicts, such as the ongoing war in Palestine. Future conflicts, possibly in Asia, could challenge the neutrality of Central Asian countries in international disputes. Analysts speculate, for instance, about potential conflicts between the PRC and the US over Taiwan. In such scenarios, Central Asian nations might struggle to maintain a neutral stance, as taking sides could be inevitable and refusal might be perceived as distrust.
Central Asian countries have the potential to unite over international conflicts, but much depends on the sectors most affected, particularly the economy and environment. The pandemic and the Ukraine war have shown a global trend toward localizing production chains. Environmental issues, like the construction of the Qosh-Tepa canal, are also critical. To address these, regional countries should seek collaborative solutions through expert communities and promote these on platforms like "C5+", where they can collectively propose and advocate for their interests.
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