Central Asian countries should be viewed by The United States as the subjects of their own stories rather than mere objects in the broader competition with other nations, according to Evan Feigenbaum, the Vice President for Studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Astana Times reports.
U.S. approach towards Central Asia
Feigenbaum underscored the need for a fundamental shift in the U.S. approach towards Central Asia.
He stated, “I don’t think the United States is doing a good job of that. Increasingly, the United States thinks it is competing with China everywhere in the world. It is reducing countries to being proxies in a competition, and that is not really their game.”
Global vs. regional outlook
While the topic of the event focused on finding a “new formula for peace,” Feigenbaum expressed a pessimistic mood at the global level. He attributed this to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the strategic competition between the United States and China, both of which are having debilitating economic effects.
However, at the regional level, Feigenbaum sees optimism. He said, “But at a regional level, ironically enough, I actually find it more hopeful.” He highlighted a notable increase in economic interaction among the Central Asian countries.
Kazakhstan’s growing trade
In the case of Kazakhstan, the nation’s trade with Central Asian neighbours is also growing. According to the Kazakh Ministry of National Economy, in 2022, Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries hit $8bn, 25% higher than the 2021 figure. Exports made up $5.7bn, and imports – $2.3bn.
Feigenbaum highlighted the relocation of multinational companies from Russia to Kazakhstan as an example of how countries like Kazakhstan are leveraging some of the contradictions at the global level for advantage.
Economic and security fragmentation
Amid the current global challenges, Feigenbaum highlights a troubling trend where economics and security, once running in parallel lines, are now increasingly colliding. The expert identifies a significant disruption in economic integration, particularly driven by what he termed as “security fragmentation”. Feigenbaum suggested that one way to address this issue is through technology.
He noted, “Almost all technologies, especially emerging and foundational technologies of the future, are dual-use in nature,” pointing out their potential military applications alongside economic or commercial uses.
The dual-use perspective, which acknowledges both the commercial and security aspects of technology, underscores the risk of limiting opportunities for innovation. This perspective is particularly relevant in fields such as biotechnology, where the lack of trust between nations and heightened security competition can disrupt co-innovation, potentially impeding the development of critical medicines, therapeutics, and vaccines.
Challenge and opportunity
Evan Feigenbaum, an expert in the field, highlights the challenges and opportunities this presents.
He states, “I think that defines the challenge that we are facing, which is how not to ignore security but de-securitize, particularly some areas of technology where there is commercial and public benefit for Kazakhstan. The opportunity is to try, as I said, to leverage some of the contradictions among external partners, but also, frankly, to demand more from its partners, for example, that more value-added is left in the region when countries invest here.”
For Central Asia, this is where the opportunity lies. “For a region like this, escaping from that security trap and focusing more on the positive benefits of economic integration, particularly because you are sitting astride very rapidly growing regions of the world – that’s the opportunity,” said the expert.
American investments in Central Asia
Analyzing the landscape of American economic involvement in Central Asia, Feigenbaum points out significant disparities, with a pronounced focus on Kazakhstan.
According to the Kazakh Invest national company, the total influx of American investments in 2022 increased by 82%, reaching $5.1mn. Since 2005, the United States has invested over $95mn in Kazakhstan.
The 2023 report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that Kazakhstan is leading in terms of investments. Out of $10.6mn invested overall in the region in 2022, Kazakhstan accounted for $6.1mn.
Focus on trade in diplomatic engagement
Discussing American diplomatic engagement through the C5+1 framework, a diplomatic platform launched in 2015 to boost cooperation between Central Asia and the United States, Feigenbaum offers a historical perspective, noting the existence of a prior Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with all five Central Asian countries.
“When I was in the Bush administration, the United States had something called a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement with all five countries of Central Asia. In fact, in a world where the United States mostly has bilateral TIFAs, it was the only regional TIFA that the United States had in the world with multiple countries,” he said.
To enhance economic engagement in the region, the United States should redirect its focus from diplomatic discussions to initiatives that leverage American strengths in technology, innovation, entrepreneurship, capital markets, and English language education.
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