The complexity of Central Asian geopolitics, particularly through the lens of the "C5 + 1" mechanism, offers a rich tapestry of alliances and strategic negotiations on the global stage. Here, "C5" refers to the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – while “+ 1” represents an additional external power, which could vary from the United States to China or another globally influential actor.
In a discussion with Farkhod Tolipov, an expert in Central Asian geopolitics, a deeper dive into the dynamics and significance of the “C5 + 1” structure was undertaken. According to Tolipov, there have been a series of multilateral events that could be commonly portrayed as "C5 + 1" in varying forms and manifestations over the last couple of months. He mentioned, "we're full of multilateral events with participation of five Central Asian Presidents beginning from August. Maybe we are observing events, one after another, which could be commonly portrayed as C5 + 1 in different forms, in different manifestations".
One pivotal event involved not all five, but three Presidents of Central Asia meeting together in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, to discuss regional changes, particularly in relation to the construction of Qoshtepa canal by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Tolipov illustrated the wider implications of such meetings, noting: "even including Afghanistan, because ecological consequences do not recognize any border. So if they even managed to construct this canal, the overall consequences, ecological consequences will be felt by them as well".
An essential dimension of these interactions is the notion of the C5 countries convening without the involvement of external powers, or “C5 + 0,” as articulated by Tolipov. He noted another significant event in which "5 Central Asian countries. I call this C5 + 0 without any external power participation. They met in the capital of Tajikistan to discuss regional issues" Tolipov said.
A range of "C5 + 1" formats was further explored by Tolipov, including meetings with Gulf countries, and also American leaders.
Tolipov mentioned, "Mr. Biden, President of the United States, organized American C5 + 1. That means American leaders plus 5 Central Asian leaders. So it was another event in this sequence of C5 + 1 related meetings and events and formats".
Furthermore, the "C5 + 1" configurations can take diverse forms with different countries, as Tolipov observed that "no less than 10 C5 + 1 formats exist already. Which signify the cooperation of 5 Central Asian countries with different ones. There are 10 'ones' already" Tolipov stated. He underscored the uniqueness of these formations, highlighting that it's rather rare to find another region in the world that could create a similar model of cooperation with a major global power.
Diving deeper, Tolipov underscored the implications of this multifaceted approach, emphasizing the recognition and significance of the Central Asian region in the international community, especially among major powers.
He noted, "It means that the region of Central Asia is recognized by the international community, especially major powers. Who and not only it is recognized as a single region as an entity as an agent, but also its significance is reflected in its unique geographical location in a neighborhood with China and Russia"
Central Asian Geopolitics: Navigating the New "Great Game"
The geopolitical intricacies within Central Asia have become a focal point of discussion. These discussions unravel a multifaceted narrative of alliances, competitions, and strategic implementations by several world powers, notably in the 'C5+1' formats where five Central Asian countries collaborate with a major external power. Nevertheless, how these countries manage their course through the multifarious geopolitical environment remains a pertinent query.
Tolipov emphasizes a significant complexity within the 'C5+1' configurations, stating they possess "different connotations, different meanings" and harbor "different purposes." Notably, these frameworks, especially those involving the United States and Russia, can even be "antagonistic to each other," illustrating the conflicting strategies that Central Asian nations must dissect and navigate through.
Simultaneously, while the "C5+1" formats burgeon, the major powers or "ones," are themselves interwoven in their respective global contests and hostilities. Tolipov highlights, "For instance, Russia versus Us. Versus China, and so on," transforming Central Asia into a geostrategic arena—not overtly militaristic but rife with geopolitical strategy, competition, and "intrigues."
The discourse also explores the concept of hegemony within the region, debating whether the pursuit of regional dominance is a standard approach by the involved powers or if divergent tactics prevail. Russia is hinted at adopting a hegemonic strategy within its 'C5+1' approach, contrasted against China's more ambiguous and potentially patient strategy.
Tolipov articulates varied approaches: "Hegemonism is a goal with respect to others. No, it's more collaboration supporting regionalism, regional integration. But not hegemonism."
It suggests a nuanced geopolitical ballet, where each power enacts its distinct plan within a shared, competitive arena: Central Asia.
In this lattice of geopolitical machinations, the idea of containment emerges, notably concerning U.S. policy toward China and Russia, echoing tactics from the Cold War era. Though a containment policy, characterized by global military deployments during the Cold War, is debated for its current relevancy in the Central Asian context.
Tolipov contemplates, "Will it be the similar idea of containment implying deployment of forces deployment of bases. I doubt, although theoretically, it is quite normal and quite possible..." Previously, from 2001 to 2005, U.S. bases were set in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with a specific mission in Afghanistan. Tolipov deemed this as “quite normal” and not confrontational to major powers like Russia or China. However, when such strategies expand beyond this context, they transition from mere containment and possibly morph into a different geopolitical endeavor.
Central Asia's Ascendance in the Geopolitical Labyrinth
Discussing the relation between the Ukraine conflict and the increased global visibility of the C5, Dr. Tolipov shared, "Most of the C5 plus ones appeared long before the war in Ukraine. But the situation in Ukraine probably provided some impetus to C5 plus one in terms of activation." Tolipov highlighted that the first real pioneers of C5+1 formats were Japan and South Korea in the 90s and that these relations have maintained strong in the last 30 years.
He also spotlighted the recent Chinese version of the C5 + 1, referring to the Xi'an Declaration, and China urging that "it's time to institutionalize these formats. C5 plus one, by creating a permanently functioning Secretariat." China being a security provider to the region is an occurrence that was never imagined previously and highlights the dynamic nature of relations between nations.
Discussing the historical trajectory of the Central Asian countries, Dr. Tolipov emphasized, "The general trend of Central Asia's evolution from 1991 up to now is unification and real integration," despite apparent disparities in unity over the last 30 years.
Central Asia's Precious Commodity: Water and Regional Integration
Navigating towards Central Asia's strategic dynamics and water access, which shadow the region's integration ambitions, was another point of discussion.
Responding to concerns about potential divisiveness over water access, Dr. Tolipov traced the history of water-related affairs in Central Asia through various stages. He detailed Uzbekistan's evolving stance towards major hydropower projects, transitioning from opposition under President Karimov to a supportive stance under new leadership.
He recalled a passionate statement from the President of Tajikistan during a visit to Tashkent in 2018: "We will never leave our Uzbek brothers without water."
This sentiment highlighted warming relations and common approaches, even on sensitive issues like water access.
On perspectives of regional integration in Central Asia, Dr. Tolipov concluded, "I'm rather optimistic, although I see a lot of problems, of course."
Water, representing not only a vital resource but also a symbol of unity amidst possible discord, poses a telling reflection of Central Asia’s potential for deeper integration and cooperative responses to external challenges.
Written by Tawney Kruger
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