Russia's decision to temporarily ban the export of gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) last month has had a significant impact on the country's railway gasoline exports, resulting in an 80% decline during the first 15 days of October compared to the same period in September. This substantial drop, amounting to approximately 37,000 tonnes, was revealed through data provided by two market sources and Reuters calculations.
The ban on fuel exports was implemented on September 21, 2023, in response to a domestic market shortage, forcing Russian refineries to divert their gasoline supply inward. While the restrictions have been partially eased as of last week, exceptions were made for fuel supplied under inter-governmental agreements, particularly those with members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
During the first half of October, Russian refineries managed to send 10,000 tonnes of gasoline to Kyrgyzstan and 4,900 tonnes to Tajikistan, thanks to the existing inter-governmental fuel supply agreements with these countries. Mongolia was also exempt from the export ban, leading to approximately 6,800 tonnes of Russian gasoline being shipped to the nation.
While some refineries in Russia are still undergoing maintenance, the majority of the gasoline exported via Russian ports in October originated from Belarus' refineries, according to anonymous market sources. These sources also revealed that Belarus supplied about 120,000 tonnes of gasoline to Russian ports by rail in the first 15 days of October. This marks a substantial decrease from the approximately 246,000 tonnes supplied in September.
The decline in gasoline exports to Russia can be attributed to the transportation and transit transshipment agreement signed in 2021 between Belarus and Russia for the export of petroleum products from Belarusian oil plants through Russian ports. In 2022, Russia exported 4.817 mn tonnes of gasoline, underscoring the significance of the fuel sector in the nation's economy.
As Russia continues to navigate its domestic market challenges and global fuel demand dynamics, the impact of the temporary export ban on its fuel industry remains a topic of concern and discussion among industry analysts and experts.
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