For drought-ridden Afghanistan, the construction of the Qosh-Tepa canal on the Amu Darya River could be a lifeline but casts a looming shadow over Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan downstream, exacerbating water scarcity threats, CabarAsia (USA) reports.
The project is being implemented in Balkh province near the border with Turkmenistan.
Planet Lab satellite images reveal that from March 2022 to May 19, 2023, the Afghans managed to construct approximately 100 km of the 285-km canal (100 metres wide and 8 metres deep). The methods employed appear remarkably rudimentary.
"A mere “digging” approach devoid of proper reinforcement or lining for the canal’s bottom and banks....Such an approach poses a grave risk, as significant water losses may occur due to seepage into the dry, sandy soil."
Once completed, it aims to transform the agricultural landscape of Afghanistan’s arid northern provinces—Kaldar, Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab—by providing essential irrigation to over 550,000 hectares of farmland.
Diverse assessments suggest that in the span of 5-6 years, upon the canal’s operation, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will face a notable decline in their average water intake capacity along the middle and lower reaches of the transboundary river—dropping from 80% to 65%.
"Central Asian nations can no longer afford to overlook Afghanistan’s water concerns. Amid the growing influence of climate change in the region, strategic preparations are essential to tackle the imminent challenges posed by the water crisis."
Experts believe Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan should switch to sustainable agricultural models: diversify crops, introduce drip irrigation and reuse drainage water.
About the negotiation potential.
"It is foreseeable that Uzbekistan will seek to bolster cooperation with Afghanistan by according legitimacy to Afghanistan's authority on the international stage."
Embracing a barter system of agreements, Uzbekistan will likely engage in facilitating the passage of water flows during summer in exchange for the supply of electricity in winter—a resource already provided by Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan has emphasized the priority of the Trans-Afghan railway's construction, underscoring its potential as a means of dialogue with Afghanistan.
As for Turkmenistan, an anticipated strengthening of cooperation may centre around the supply of gas to Afghanistan and its transit to Pakistan—an initiative that has already been set in motion, CabarAsia writes.
"This existing collaboration may ease negotiations on regulating the canal's operations."
Water Minister of Uzbekistan Shavkat Khamrayev said recently that an agreement had been reached to set up a joint working group with the Afghan authorities.
Local experts told Daryo that the Amu Darya River accounts for nearly 90% of total water flow in Turkmenistan, which recently established an intergovernmental commission on water issues with Uzbekistan.
Turkmenistan borders Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan and uses water resources supplied under agreed quotas from four transboundary rivers: the Amu Darya, Tejen, Atrek and Murghab.
Credits: Ezizi Boyarov
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