A concerning new report released by the Health Foundation has projected that over 9 mn people in England will be living with major illnesses by the year 2040, representing a significant increase of 2.5 mn individuals compared to 2019 figures. The report reveals that this surge is occurring at a rate nine times faster than the growth of the working-age population over the same period.
The Health Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to enhancing healthcare in the UK, conducted the analysis as part of a four-year project in collaboration with the University of Liverpool. The study focused on predicting the prevalence of major health conditions in the English population up to 2040.
Of great concern is that 80% of the projected increase in major illnesses will primarily affect individuals aged 70 and above, reflecting the aging demographic in the country. As the population continues to age, the strain on healthcare services, particularly primary care, will intensify.
As per the report, 19 out of the 20 health conditions examined are expected to experience a rise in prevalence, with conditions such as cancer, diabetes, and kidney disease showing an increase of more than 30%. In 2019, one in six adults in England was already living with a major illness, and this number is anticipated to rise to almost one in five by 2040, placing a substantial burden on the National Health Service (NHS).
Anita Charlesworth, Director of the REAL Centre, expressed her concerns about the additional demands on the NHS, particularly in primary care, which is already facing immense pressure. However, she emphasized that the implications extend far beyond healthcare, impacting other public services, the labor market, and public finances.
“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure,” said Anita Charlesworth,
Charlesworth pointed out that this issue is not exclusive to England and that countries worldwide face similar pressures. The key differentiator will be how well each nation prepares and addresses the challenges ahead.
The report highlights the urgent need for a focus on prevention and early intervention, particularly concerning conditions like anxiety and depression, chronic pain, and diabetes, which are predominantly managed outside of hospitals. The authors stress the importance of investing in services outside of hospital settings to accommodate the projected growth in these illnesses.
While 80% of the expected increase will occur among individuals aged over 70, the remaining 20% will impact those aged 20-69. The lead economist at the REAL Centre, Toby Watt, emphasized that managing these pressures is possible with careful planning, strategic investments, and changes in healthcare delivery.
The authors clarified that the findings are projections, not definite forecasts, meant to aid policymakers in preparing for the future. While some improvements in key health indicators, like reduced smoking rates, are expected, these gains may be offset by rising obesity rates and other factors.
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