In a groundbreaking revelation, an independent statistical analysis has shed light on the human cost of Russia's involvement in the war in Ukraine, uncovering that nearly 50,000 Russian men have lost their lives, Al Jazeera reports.
This analysis, conducted by Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza in collaboration with a data scientist from Germany's Tübingen University, utilized a statistical concept known as excess mortality to delve into the true extent of casualties inflicted during Russia's invasion. The findings present a stark contrast to the limited official figures released by Moscow, exposing one of the closely-held secrets of the conflict.
Both Russia and Ukraine have refrained from providing timely and transparent data on military losses, with each side seeking to downplay the scale of casualties inflicted upon the other. While Russia publicly acknowledges the deaths of only about 6,000 soldiers, reports of military losses have been heavily suppressed within the Russian media landscape. Consequently, documenting the deceased has become an act of defiance, leaving those involved in such endeavors susceptible to harassment and potential legal repercussions.
Despite these challenges, Mediazona, BBC News Russian, and a network of volunteers have meticulously gathered information from social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia, constructing a database that confirms the deaths of 27,423 Russian soldiers as of July 7. These records represent only the soldiers whose identities are known and whose deaths have been verified through multiple sources. To arrive at a more comprehensive estimate, Mediazona and Meduza obtained inheritance records filed with Russian authorities.
Their analysis of data from the National Probate Registry, encompassing more than 11mn individuals who passed away between 2014 and May 2023, revealed a significant surge in inheritance cases for males aged 15 to 49. In 2022 alone, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened for this age group than anticipated, a figure that had escalated to 47,000 by May 27, 2023. This surge aligns closely with a May assessment by the White House, which estimated that over 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December. However, the independent analysis provides a lower estimate than intelligence assessments from the US and UK, which suggested higher overall Russian casualties.
While uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the deaths of older men and the fate of missing Russian soldiers, the independent analysis offers plausible results. Importantly, the Russian Ministry of Defence did not provide an immediate comment on these findings. Mediazona and Meduza, both independent Russian media outlets, have faced considerable challenges, including being labeled as "foreign agents" by Russian authorities and encountering restrictions on their operations.
The revelation of the substantial loss of Russian lives in the Ukraine war serves as a grim reminder of the high human cost of the conflict. It highlights the urgency of acknowledging the true scale of casualties, providing support to affected families, and seeking avenues for a peaceful resolution to prevent further loss of life in this protracted crisis.
Earlier, it was reported that 9,000 Ukrainian civilians lost their lives during 500 days of the war.
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