Spain's upcoming snap elections have sparked concerns about the impact on the country's presidency of the Council of the European Union. With Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialist party currently trailing in the polls, there is a possibility of a change in government that could have significant ramifications for Spain's leadership role in the EU.
The right-wing People's Party (PP) is poised to take power if the polls hold true, and there are even speculations about a potential coalition government with the far-right Vox party. Such a political shift could bring about a change in Spain's European policies and priorities, as well as its relationship with other member states.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, expressed confidence in Spain's ability to deliver an effective presidency, regardless of the election outcome.
"Whatever the results of the elections are, I trust that the Spanish government and the institutions will be able to deliver an effective presidency, and I have full confidence in Spain's deep European spirit," she said during her visit to Madrid.
However, there are concerns that the summer holidays and the process of government formation, which may take months or even lead to new elections, could divert Spain's attention away from its obligations in Brussels. This distraction may weaken Spain's six-month presidency, which was meant to strengthen the country's international standing and advance key legislative files.
The current team responsible for these files, including the ambassador, was appointed by the existing government. Any changes in leadership before December could potentially disrupt the ongoing processes and introduce a degree of disorder.
Raquel García, an analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute, suggests that while the core of the presidency may remain intact with a change of government, there could be some adjustments. She notes that the personality and priorities of the new president may influence Spain's desire for leadership within the EU.
"Recent years we have seen that there has been an express desire for this leadership, to speak out in the face of challenges, such as the pandemic or, for example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which at first sight may seem to be an issue that is not a priority for Spain, and Spain has wanted to exercise leadership. In this sense, it remains to be seen whether the person who will hold the presidency of the government after the snap elections on 23 July will want to maintain this desire for leadership," García explained.
This is not the first time a country has held elections in the middle of its presidency. France experienced a similar situation when Emmanuel Macron was re-elected during its own semester in the EU Council. However, the potential policy shifts resulting from Spain's elections have raised concerns among EU member states about the future direction and stability of the Council's presidency.
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