After multiple rounds of negotiations, Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of reaching a peace accord that would require Yerevan to abandon its historical claim to Karabakh. Recent talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilhom Aliyev in Moscow on May 24, under the auspices of the Higher Eurasian Economic Council, indicate progress towards a resolution. Notably, Aliyev's presence at the ceremony, despite Azerbaijan not being a member of the European Union, highlights the significance of the meeting.
The potential signing of the peace pact signifies Azerbaijan's triumph in the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and a major foreign policy success. However, this development poses a challenge for Armenia and its leadership, including Pashinyan and his party, as it remains uncertain whether they can retain power amid the agreement's signing.
The peace accord's implications extend beyond the two countries involved, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the region. The pact represents a setback for Moscow, as it implies Russia's failure in the Caucasus region. Despite Armenia's membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia did not provide significant assistance during the war, leading to questions about the purpose and effectiveness of the union. The limitations imposed by CSTO membership, including restrictions on procuring weapons from other countries, proved futile in the face of Armenia's aspirations for victory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's attempts to exert influence, including threats towards Baku and economic pressure on Yerevan, have led Russia to a stalemate in the region. With Azerbaijan's victory and Russia's diminishing leverage, the role of peacemaker becomes a minor one for Putin, who must now navigate the shifting dynamics in the Caucasus without significant leverage or military assistance from Russia.
The restrained Russian involvement in the Second Armenian-Azerbaijani War in 2020 can be partly attributed to Turkey's support for Azerbaijan, following clashes between Russian and Turkish forces in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's military involvement and subsequent threats of full-force engagement by Ankara further complicated the situation. The events in Syria and the Caucasus illustrate the limitations of Russian influence in the face of a resolute opponent and highlight the need for Putin to engage both the victorious Aliyev and the defeated Pashinyan to maintain Russia's dominance in the region.
As the peace accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia nears completion, the geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus undergoes significant shifts, challenging Russia's influence and requiring astute diplomacy to maintain stability in the region.
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