May 27 can be considered a date of shifts in the energy policy of Uzbekistan. The Central Asian nation proceeded into an agreement with Russia that would result in the development of six mini-nuclear power plants in the Jizzakh region, adding up to 330MW of power. Looking at it from an energy security perspective, this development is a highly positive one for a country that has seen the frequency of power outages intensifying over the past two years. At the same time, nonetheless, it opens up the discussion around a topic that has been highly controversial over the past decade on a global scale, namely the debate around nuclear. Being mindful that this debate has caused a conflict of views around the EU energy policy between its two largest economies, France and Germany, it presents great interest to see how such a debate will unfold in Central Asia, what is the current stance over the aforementioned energy source by each Central Asian state and what would be the drivers or impediments for increased deployment of nuclear power plants in the region.
Position on Nuclear per Country
Uzbekistan
The decision to embark on a journey to embrace nuclear technologies was set out by Uzbekistan in 2020. At that time, in the electricity policy that was developed by the Ministry of Energy, at least 15% of the electricity produced by 2030 should be produced by nuclear energy. Tashkent has made several steps ever since, including agreements signed with Rosenergoatom and Rosatom in 2022, so this development does not come as a surprise. Uzbekistan also enjoys a satisfying level of social acceptance on nuclear energy, compared to the other Central Asian states, so the country is perfectly positioned to lead the development of nuclear energy within the region.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan officially endorses nuclear power technologies within its premises, as, in its Green Energy Policy, drafted in 2013, the Central Asian nation aims at having 50% of its electricity produced by clean means, and nuclear is among the means mentioned in the strategy. It is also coordinating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on matters related to capacity building and development of a National Nuclear Infrastructure Development (NID) Agency. The strategy from Kazakhstan, allegedly, went as far as an agreement with a Chinese nuclear technology company on the development of a 2.4GW power plant, however such discussions did not show any progress. The main reason is the lack of social acceptance, that stems from the fear of radioactive leaks and the fear, together with the lack of trust, predominantly because of the disposal of nuclear waste in the region during the Soviet period.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan has seen a massive transformation in its energy policy, with regards to nuclear, over the past 5 years. The national government had issued a ban on uranium mining, whilst no plans to add nuclear power plants was in place. This all changed in 2022, when the ban was revoked and then-Minister of Energy Doskul Bekmurzaev met with the general director of Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, to develop several small-scale nuclear power plants in Kyrgyzstan, in a deal that resembles that of Uzbekistan. Social acceptance, however, is still low, citing environmental concerns, in a situation that is more similar to that of Kazakhstan.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan is one of the countries that are still reluctant to engage with nuclear power. The potential drivers might be the low uranium reserves, compared to other Central Asian states, but also the fact that Tajikistan is the country with the largest number of nuclear waste dumps. The national government is working closely with IAEA on identifying the exact waste locations, optimizing its waste management strategies and raising awareness among the local population, relocating them whenever needed, such as in the case of Gafurov. Taking the aforementioned into account, Tajikistan can be considered to be an opposition of nuclear power in the region in the future.
Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan has engaged in nuclear-related topics in the past only as part of its “permanent neutrality” strategy, not entering any defense alliances and any such deals, including nuclear arms. Its government officials have engaged with the IAEA in the context of capacity building on nuclear law and safety ever since 2020 and, in 2023, the Central Asian state started joining International Nuclear Safety Conventions. The nature of this might be purely typical or it might be an indicator that Ashgabat might be pursuing nuclear power projects in the future, however at the moment it is considered a country with low probability to develop nuclear power itself, but also low risk of reacting to regional nuclear power projects.
Expectations
Overall, nuclear energy has become a major debate on a global scale. Its alleged environmental implications, comparison to other forms of clean energy and social acceptance all create a landscape of disagreements, which is most profound in one of the most demand-hungry markets such as the EU. Reflecting on this, it makes sense to have concerns over the potential of expansion of that debate in Central Asia, amidst plans to construct small-scale nuclear power plants by Russia. However, reflecting on the strategies of each country in the region, the risk for (geo)political tensions on an inter-state level is rather low, and it could be only found in cases like the Tajik-Kyrgyz relations, which already showed deterioration patterns in the past. The biggest risk can be found in the communities themselves, as societal acceptance is still low and, following the wave of social unrest in the past 5 years, the acceptance levels should be monitored systematically, if nuclear power projects are to be put in place, as the impact of lack of acceptance might be high.
Written by: Dimitris Symeonidis
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