In an era of geopolitical fluctuations worldwide, decreasing dependence on sea routes is increasing demand for land routes. In particular, the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia by the West have revitalised transport projects passing through Central Asian countries.
Uzbekistan's participation in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor has been growing recently. For example, on July 7-8 this year, a road map was signed for the implementation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project. Also, on May 28-29, a meeting of representatives of railway administrations of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey was held in Tashkent on the development of freight traffic along the CASCA+ transport corridor.
On Uzbekistan's participation and interests in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor Daryo talks with the First Deputy Director of the Agency for Strategic Reforms under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Abdulla Abdukadirov and political scientist, expert of the non-governmental organisation scientific institution "Knowledge Caravan" Nargiza Umarova.
- At the beginning of our conversation, let us dwell a little on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor.
Nargiza Umarova, political scientist, and expert of the non-governmental scientific organisation "Knowledge Caravan":
- First of all, at the beginning of our conversation it would be appropriate to clarify the conditions concerning transport corridors. Because as this corridor develops, there are different terms in official sources, among the public and experts. The second name of the Trans-Caspian Road is the middle lane. There are several routes in this corridor. In fact, this corridor is a transcontinental corridor, i.e. an international corridor connecting different regions. This corridor will include railways, roads and sea routes. And all these roads pass through the Central Asian region. The northern route of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Road starts from the Chinese city of Kashgar and passes through Kazakhstan to Russia. The second road, the central road, passes through southern Kazakhstan to the port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. The third road starts from the city of Kashgar, passes through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and connects to the port of Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea. All these routes lead to Europe. That is, through the Caspian Sea it can connect to the ports of Azerbaijan and go from Azerbaijan to Georgia and Turkey. It connects to Eastern Europe through the ports of Turkey and Georgia.
Among the terms is the concept of trans-Asian corridors. Among the trans-Asian corridors, the Trans-Caspian Corridor is used as the central corridor. Then there is the southern direction. It is a direct exit to the Persian Gulf countries through South Asia and Iran.
Abdulla Abdukadirov, First Deputy Director of the Strategic Reform Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan:
- Why are the conditions different? First of all, there is currently no agreement between the Central Asian countries on which corridor to jointly develop. This is still the cause of great disputes. Secondly, some countries are trying to instil this in others by promoting their dreams. Thirdly, the main role here is played by China in the East and Europe in the West. Central Asian countries are considered transit countries between China and Europe. Of great importance here is the size and type of goods arriving and leaving Central Asian countries. Naturally, instead, natural resources and agricultural products depart from Central Asia for Europe and China.
Based on today's realities, there is a route from China to Europe via Russia. But this road cannot be fully utilised due to the sanctions imposed on Russia. The second route is access to the Caspian Sea via Kazakhstan. China is currently focusing on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway for greater integration with Central Asian countries. This road also leads to the Caspian Sea. But there is also a Southern Corridor for China. This is an exit to Iran via Pakistan. So the possibilities of China creating a major freight transport are enormous. For Europe, it is not so important how Chinese products arrive. But for us it is very important. Because these roads go through all the Central Asian countries, all competing with each other.
Nargiza Umarova:
- The Russian-Ukrainian war caused a dramatic change in the architecture of transport corridors in the Eurasian region. And this process is still continuing. In this context, all Central Asian countries have a unique opportunity to increase their transit potential, diversify transport corridors and integrate into international transport corridors.
85% of world trade is conducted by sea. But developments in the Red Sea against the backdrop of the conflict in Palestine have created great dangers for sea routes. In addition, the lowering of the water level in the Panama Canal has caused some problems. That is, the cost of sea lanes has become increasingly expensive. As a result, China has started to focus on land routes. Now China cannot reach Europe through Russia. Therefore, China has to cross one of the Central Asian countries. Geography dictates this. Therefore, the Trans-Caspian Corridor, whose potential is considered very low, is becoming more and more important. This is why the problems in this corridor have become visible. The European Union is most interested in the operation of this corridor. Continuous supply of products is needed to maintain sales volumes in Europe. Therefore, the EU has announced $10bn to improve infrastructure in Central Asia. This serves to increase the attractiveness of the corridor.
Another important aspect of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor is that this project helps to intensify trade between the regions. Because these roads serve as a solution to the problems of mutual transport dependence of the countries in the region. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will further change the situation in this regard.
- The Kyrgyz authorities said that the process of construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will start in August this year. But at the moment there is no such information in our official reports.
Abdulla Abdukadirov:
- I think that many things are not yet harmonised. Even if you look at the maps, you will see differences. For example, on the project map presented by Uzbekistan, the railways enter Uzbekistan through the cities of Osh and Jalal-Abad, the southern regions of Kyrgyzstan. However, the project map provided by Kyrgyzstan shows that the railway will pass through the northern regions of Kyrgyzstan (mainly mountainous areas). If the railway passes through the north of Kyrgyzstan, the cost of the project will increase 2-3 times. So far, all three parties have not come to an agreement. If you listen to what the parties say, they are different.
I cannot agree with Nargiza's opinion that these roads are very important for the European Union. This road is more important for China. Why? Because China is the second largest economy in the world today. Major consumer goods go through China and South Asia. China's problem is that 60% of its foreign trade goes through the island routes between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. Singapore is home to a US military base. If this corridor is closed, China's foreign trade will suffer greatly. This is why China is focusing on land routes.
Today, China recommends its economy as a single window to the whole world. That is, China has established itself to the world as a country that takes care of project planning, providing all the equipment for the project, construction and supervision of the facility. There is no such thing in Europe. It is impossible to solve everything by one country.
- Doesn't this increase dependence on China?
Abdulla Abdukadirov:
- Of course, this is China's biggest goal. That is to consolidate the entire world economy and increase independence.
- How attractive for China is the railway passing through Uzbekistan?
Nargiza Umarova:
- In my opinion, the railway running through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is not a first-class railway for China. Since 2013, China has been promoting the "One Belt, One Road" project, which is considered a global project. One of the main focuses of this project is to reach Iran through Pakistan. It is also important for China to reach India. There are also several projects in this direction.
For China and other global players, Central Asian countries are like a small particle. Now we have a chance. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project did not appear yesterday. This project was postponed for 25 years. But geopolitical changes in the Eurasian region revived this project. If geopolitical changes had not occurred, I think this project would still be hanging in the air.
This project is of fundamental importance for Uzbekistan. The reason for this is the geography of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan does not even have a direct access to the Caspian Sea. Besides, if we consider the role of Central Asian countries in trade between China and Europe, 100% Kazakhstan plays a role in this. Because Kazakhstan has a border with both China and Russia. Therefore, geography gives Kazakhstan great opportunities.
Abdullah Abdukadirov:
- Despite this, Uzbekistan is the only country in Central Asia that borders Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. This is a great opportunity for Uzbekistan.
The full interview can be viewed on Daryo's YouTube page.
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