In an interview with Rasul Kusherbayev, adviser to the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change, climatologist Erkin Abdulahatov shared alarming insights about the future of Uzbekistan's climate. Abdulahatov highlighted the severe temperature increases expected in the coming decades and emphasized the critical role of human activity in driving climate change.
"In 2000-2005, experts predicted that in 2024-2025, the air temperature in Uzbekistan will rise by 2 degrees above normal. Many of our scientists wrote about it in their monographs. In particular, in 2005, 'Voris' publishing house published a scientific monograph on climate change and its impact on Uzbekistan. It contains scripts developed for each network. For example, the impact of climate change on agriculture was analyzed. Forecasts written 20-25 years ago are paying off now. This monograph was published in the largest number of copies and was also presented to the government. I have seen it on the shelves of the authorities," Abdulahatov explained.
The Anthropogenic Factor
Abdulahatov points to the anthropogenic, or human-caused, factors as the primary drivers of current climate change.
"Now humanity is going through the hottest period in its 125,000-year history. We are entering the warmest period of the year. In this case, the temperature is hot for a year, and then it does not cool down. We are living in the industrial age and we are releasing too many gases into the atmosphere due to our energy production. The human factor plays a major role in climate change. 90 percent of the world's experts believe that the current climate warming is caused by an anthropogenic factor," Abdulahatov stated.
He also acknowledged the minority view among scientists that other factors, such as geological changes, astronomical reasons, and solar activity, contribute to climate change. However, the overwhelming consensus points to human activity as the main culprit.
Uzbekistan's Unique Vulnerability
"A large part of Uzbekistan consists of desert areas. If the global temperature does not rise by 1-2 degrees per year (in 2023 it will be 1.5 degrees), the temperature in this region is rising by 2 degrees," Abdulahatov noted.
Looking ahead, Abdulahatov painted a dire picture of what Uzbekistan might face if current trends continue unchecked.
"In India, the temperature has risen to 50 degrees. People are dying from heat. Especially the children can't stand it. Heat stress is very strong. In the future, we will face such heat stress. By 2050, if nothing is done, the temperature in the summer months will be 6-7 degrees hotter than usual. This means that it will be hot around 50 degrees," he warned.
To combat the adverse effects of climate change, Abdulahatov emphasized the importance of increasing greenery, using water correctly, and adhering to environmental norms in production and processing processes. Earlier discussions have highlighted these strategies as essential for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change in Uzbekistan.
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