International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook for April 2024 shows that, Kyrgyzstan has experienced a varied economic landscape in recent years, characterized by both challenges and opportunities.
Beginning with GDP growth, Kyrgyzstan demonstrated resilience amid fluctuating global conditions. From 2016 to 2024, the country experienced a mixed trajectory, marked by significant fluctuations. Starting at 4.3% in 2016, the GDP growth rate steadily climbed to 6.3% in 2022, reflecting the nation's efforts to stimulate economic activity. However, challenges emerged in subsequent years, with a notable contraction of -7.1% in 2020, attributed to various economic disruptions. Despite this setback, Kyrgyzstan rebounded swiftly, achieving a growth rate of 4.2% in 2023 and maintaining a stable outlook for 2024 and 2025, projected at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively.
Concurrently, Kyrgyzstan's consumer price index (CPI) experienced fluctuations, reflecting the nation's economic dynamics. The CPI, an indicator of inflation, fluctuated between 0.4% in 2016 to a peak of 13.9% in 2019. These fluctuations underscore the challenges associated with maintaining stable prices amidst evolving economic conditions. However, Kyrgyzstan has demonstrated resilience, with the CPI projected to stabilize at 6.6% in 2024, reflecting efforts to mitigate inflationary pressures and promote economic stability.
Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan's unemployment rates provide insights into labor market dynamics within the country. In 2023, the unemployment rate stood at 9%, reflecting persistent challenges in job creation and workforce participation. However, projections for 2024 and 2025 indicate stability, with unemployment rates expected to remain constant at 9%, signaling efforts to sustain employment opportunities and foster economic inclusivity.
IMF projection 2023
Before the pandemic, the country's Real GDP maintained stability, fluctuating between 3% and 5%. However, during the pandemic, it experienced a significant decline, reaching -7.1%. Projections indicate minor fluctuations, with the highest expected in 2024 at 4.3% and the lowest in 2023 at 3.4%. In terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the country exhibited the lowest rates among Central Asian nations from 2017 to 2020. Subsequently, the index surged to 11.9% in 2022. Projections suggest a substantial decrease in CPI by 2028, to 8.6%.
ADB and World Bank reports
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Kyrgyzstan's economy will expand by 5.0% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Predicted inflation rates are expected to decrease to 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, driven by enhancements in the global food market and a decline in domestic demand.
In 2023, the Kyrgyz Republic saw impressive GDP growth of 6.2%, driven largely by the vitality of the services industry, especially transit trade. Looking ahead, WB forecasts a tempered growth path, with a projected GDP expansion of 4.5% in 2024. This deceleration is primarily attributed to a slowdown in the services sector.
Comments (0)