U.S. officials observed a marked rise in illegal immigrants from Central Asia, estimating that about 50,000 individuals entered the country in 2023, ASIA-Plus reported. There is growing concern regarding potential ties between some of these individuals and extremist groups.
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The United States of America has a rich history of immigration. The British policy of encouraging migration to the New World provided a strategic advantage during the colonial wars. Subsequently, the influx of ambitious, energetic, and well-educated migrants formed the backbone of the young nation, contributing significantly to its growth and development.
Data from the Migration Policy Institute puts the immigrant population at approximately 45.3 mn individuals as of 2021, which constitutes a significant portion of the overall US population of about 331.9 mn. The country formally accepts roughly one million migrants annually under its immigration policies.
A key facet of these policies is the emphasis on family reunification, responsible for the issuance of two-thirds of green cards to family members of existing US residents.
Additionally, the green card program adheres to a 7% per-country cap, ensuring no single nation exceeds this limit in the yearly allocation of green cards. This policy led to extended waiting times, at times spanning several decades, particularly for applicants from high-demand countries such as India and China.
The United States experienced a substantial number of unauthorized entries over the past decade, leading to approximately 11.25 mn detentions and deportations between 2012 and 2022. Alarmingly, over the last two years, 4.5 mn cases were recorded.
Breaking down the figures by country, from 2013 to 2022, US agencies deported individuals from Central Asia as follows:
- Kazakhstan: 1,531
- Kyrgyzstan: 1,535
- Tajikistan: 734
- Turkmenistan: 310
- Uzbekistan: 6,654
A marked uptick was observed in 2022, with 5,367 people from Central Asia apprehended, suggesting a trend that aligns with concerns raised by Senator Steve Daines about the influx from that region.
Mara Gubaidullina, a political scientist professor at the Department of International Relations and World Economy, and director of the Centre for German Studies at the Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, suggests that Senator Daines' statements could be part of an electoral strategy, where the topic of migration holds significant weight.
Gubaidullina also notes the rising profile of Central Asia in global affairs, as the US and EU focus on the region amid sanctions against Russia and attempts to reduce Central Asian dependency on Russia and China.
She stresses the need for Kazakhstan to maintain a balanced, multi-vector foreign policy in the face of its strategic location between major powers.
Central Asia, according to Andrei Serenko, Director of the Analytical Centre of the Russian Society of Political Scientists, is becoming a focal point in the global arena. He states, “In the new geopolitical realities that emerged after the spring of 2022, Central Asia as a whole and its countries acquired an important status as a region influencing global problems and, above all, the problem of new competition between the West and the East.”
On the positive side, the countries of the region can leverage the contradictions between Moscow, Beijing, and their Western adversaries. This could lead to new investments, political backing, and development opportunities.
However, there are also downsides. Intransigent or overly ambitious local elites face the risk of sanctions, threats of a “colour revolution”, and even the overt use of military force. This includes unconventional methods, such as the deployment of various jihadist groups based in Afghanistan but seeking to expand into Central Asia.
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