People with higher monthly incomes in Uzbekistan are feeling the effects of inflation more strongly, according to the latest analysis by the Central Bank.
The study shows that perceived inflation among the population in July stood at 13.3%, 0.1 percentage points lower than in June. By region, the highest rate was recorded in Tashkent city at 16.4%, followed by Fergana (14.5%) and Kashkadarya (13.8%). Navoi region reported the lowest rate at 11.7%.
Meat and milk were the main goods for which price increases were most noticeable. More residents also reported higher prices for medicines, vegetable oil, and fresh produce.
Perceived inflation was higher among residents with monthly incomes exceeding UZS 5mn ($399). The highest level was reported by those earning more than UZS 15mn ($1.196) at 17.7%. The lowest was among those earning UZS 2–3mn ($159-239).
By profession, the highest inflation perception was among employees in education (14.9%) and government organizations (14%). Lower figures were reported in trade (11.7%) and consumer services (11.1%).
Population inflation expectations
In July, the population’s inflation expectations for the next 12 months dropped to 12.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from June. Concerns over utility, fuel, and energy costs remained high, along with fears of exchange rate fluctuations and rising food prices.
Higher inflation expectations were reported by those working in the catering and education sectors, while students and trade sector employees expressed comparatively lower expectations for future price growth.
Tashkent city residents had the highest expectations at 16%, while Bukhara region recorded the lowest at 11.3%.
Inflation expectations of entrepreneurs
Among entrepreneurs, inflation expectations rose to 12.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The main concerns were rising utility bills, wage increases, and the tax burden. Catering and construction firms reported the highest expectations, while craft and tourism businesses reported the lowest.
Entrepreneurs in the Tashkent region forecast the highest inflation at 13.8%, compared to 10.6% in Fergana region. High-income business owners—those earning over UZS 15mn ($1.196)—expect inflation at 15.7%, versus 11.7% among those earning less than UZS 2mn ($159).
Official annual inflation in Uzbekistan stood at 8.9% in July. Both households and businesses continue to report inflation perceptions and expectations well above the official rate.
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