The Minister of Energy, Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, warned that if geological work in the Ustyurt does not progress as anticipated, Uzbekistan could face gas imports of 10bn-11bn cubic meters by 2030.
Mirzamakhmudov attributed the current downturn in local gas output to delays in geological exploration, which typically takes 3 to 5 years to open and develop a new mine. He noted that the failure rate of existing mines has reached a staggering 85%, stressing the challenges the sector faces.
Under the "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy, implemented last year, the government aims to increase natural gas production to 62bn cubic meters annually, representing a 33% growth within seven years. In a recent interview on the Lolazor podcast, economist Otabek Bakirov inquired about the government's strategies for boosting domestic production and the anticipated increase in imports.
“The supply of natural gas to consumers is increasing, which is a natural response to economic and population growth. Our plan until 2030 envisions gas imports of 10bn-11bn cubic meters,” Mirzamakhmudov confirmed.
He reiterated that delays in geological exploration and the high failure rate of mines contribute significantly to the projected imports.
The minister highlighted the complexity of the geology in Ustyurt and mentioned that new compression compressor stations are being installed across various mines, including those in the Ustyurt, to enhance production efficiency. He referred to the American company DeGolyer and MacNaughton, which conducted a comprehensive audit of reserves and development projects for the Surgil gas project. Despite their assessments, initial projections remain unconfirmed, complicating the mining landscape further.
Mirzamakhmudov emphasized that the outcome of ongoing geological studies in Ustyurt would ultimately determine the extent of future gas imports. Should results be favorable, the anticipated import levels could be reduced; however, if findings are poor, the 10bn-11bn cubic meter target will likely remain unchanged.
Despite a sharp reduction in gas exports since the pandemic, Uzbekistan has seen a rising need for gas imports due to declining production and increasing domestic demand. This trend has resulted in growing energy dependence on Russia, with the value of Uzbekistan's gas imports reaching approximately $1bn since the beginning of the year.
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