Uzbekistan's fiscal strategy for 2025-2027 forecasts a government debt-to-GDP ratio ranging from 39.5% to 40.4%. This projection, outlined in the Ministry of Economy and Finance's budget strategy and approved by the Cabinet of Ministers, indicates a stable outlook for managing public debt over the next three years.
The budget strategy outlines scenario-based forecasts, incorporating annual limits on public debt, budget deficits, and funding for significant investment projects. Stable macroeconomic and budgetary conditions are crucial for projecting the public debt-to-GDP ratio at 39.5-40.4% from 2025 to 2027. During this period, the average external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be around 33.3%.
The strategy expects to maintain a consolidated budget deficit averaging 3% of GDP over the next three years. Government transactions in foreign trade are expected to amount to $4.5bn, with domestic government securities covering half of the total demand for debt financing.
To ensure sustainability, Uzbekistan plans to extend the average maturity of its debt by increasing the issuance of medium- and long-term government securities. Diversifying debt sources remains a priority, alongside efforts to attract international investors to the government treasury bond market.
Efforts will be intensified to improve transparency in public debt reporting and implement robust measures to effectively manage debt servicing risks. The government aims to provide comprehensive information on public debt, aiming to build investor confidence and mitigate potential financial risks.
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