For the first quarter of 2024, Uzbekistan's consolidated budget deficit is projected to be UZS 52.6 trillion ($4.2 bn), equivalent to 4.0% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The forecast includes detailed revenue and expenditure plans across various budget segments. The State Budget and State Targeted Funds are forecasted to generate revenues of UZS 326 trillion ($25.8 bn), while expenditures are expected to reach UZS 367 trillion ($29.1 bn), resulting in a deficit of UZS 41 trillion ($3.2 bn)
The Fund for Reconstruction and Development is expected to generate revenues of UZS 18.9 trillion (around $1.5 bn) and incur expenditures of UZS 18.8 trillion ($1.5 bn), resulting in a slight surplus of UZS 23 bn ($1.8 mn). State programs funded from external debt anticipate expenditures of UZS 12 trillion ($929 mn), contributing to the overall deficit. Extra-budgetary funds of budget organizations are projected to balance at UZS 31 trillion ($2.4 bn) for both revenues and expenditures.
Overall, the consolidated budget, including intergovernmental transfers, anticipates revenues of UZS 375 trillion ($30 bn) and expenditures of UZS 428 trillion ($34 bn), culminating in a deficit of UZS 53 trillion ($4.2 bn)
Medium-Term Targets for 2025-2026
Looking ahead, Uzbekistan aims to reduce the budget deficit to 3.0% of GDP. For 2025, the deficit target is set at UZS 45.7 trillion, amounting to $3.6 bn (3.0% of GDP). The same percentage target is applied for 2026, with a projected deficit of UZS 51.6 trillion ($4.1 bn).
Sources of Deficit Coverage
External sources will contribute a total of UZS 43.5 trillion ($3.4 bn), which includes loans from international financial institutions and the issuance of Eurobonds amounting to UZS 31.8 trillion ($2.5 bn), along with UZS 11.8 trillion ($933 mn) directed towards the implementation of state-targeted programs.
Domestic sources will total UZS 40.9 trillion ($3.2 bn), comprising the issuance of government treasury bonds (UZS 25.0 trillion, amounting to $2 bn), receipts from the privatization of state assets (UZS 10.0 trillion, amounting $791 mn), and repayment of loans and balances at the beginning of the year (UZS 5.8 trillion, amounting to $459 mn).
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Structure of Deficit Coverage
The structure of the sources to cover the consolidated budget deficit for 2024 is distributed as follows: external sources will provide 52%, amounting to UZS 43.5 trillion ($3.4 bn), while domestic sources will cover the remaining 48%, totaling UZS 40.9 trillion ($3.2 bn).
Comparing Uzbekistan's performance: 2023 vs. 2024
Uzbekistan's Budget deficit: 2023 vs. 2024 by Khadicha Abdurashidova
Uzbekistan's fiscal data for 2024 reflects notable changes compared to the previous year. Total revenue in 2024 rose to UZS 375 trillion ($29.7 bn), showing a 16.8% increase from 2023's UZS 322 trillion ($25.5 bn). Expenditure also increased in 2024, reaching UZS 428 trillion ($33.8 bn), marking a 12.3% rise from 2023's UZS 381 trillion ($30.1 bn). Despite increased spending, the deficit decreased to UZS 53 trillion ($4.2 bn) in 2024, down by 10.4% from UZS 59 trillion ($4.7 bn) in 2023. The deficit as a percentage of GDP also dropped from 5.5% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2024.
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