Uzbekistan’s annual inflation rate has witnessed a decline, reaching levels reminiscent of 2016. As per recent data from the Statistics Agency, the annual inflation in March 2024 stood at 7.98%, marking a decrease from the 2023 figure of 11.66%.
In March 2024, consumer prices experienced a moderate increase of 0.67% which marks the third consecutive month where inflation rates have remained the lowest for the month over the past five years. The year began with an average price increase of 1.65%, lower compared to previous years which typically saw growth rates not dipping below 2%.
Annual inflation also continued its downward trend, reaching 7.98% by the end of March, a decrease of 0.37% compared to February.
In the food segment, monthly price growth accelerated to 0.8%, contributing to an annual inflation rate of 7.8%. Vegetables and melons saw price hikes, with bell peppers soaring by almost a quarter and cabbage witnessing an 8% increase. Conversely, prices for fat and oil products (-0.7%) and meat (-0.2%) experienced a slight decline. Sunflower oil, bananas, and oranges notably dropped in price by 1.1%, 4.6%, and 5% respectively over the month.
On an annual basis, fruits and nuts (+34.4%), dairy products (+9.4%), and grains (+8.2%) saw the most price hikes, while oils (-10.5%) and vegetables (-8.2%) experienced a decrease. Onion prices decreased by 2.5 times compared to the previous year's records.
In the manufactured goods category, prices increased by 0.5% in March, with an annual rate decreasing to 7.2%. Furniture, clothing, and shoes saw low price growth rates of 0.4% to 0.5%, with corresponding annual rates ranging from 5.7% to 6.3%.
In the non-food products, clothing and footwear prices inched up by 0.4%, while household appliances remained stable in price for March, despite an 8.6% increase over the year. Electronics prices experienced a slight increase of 0.5% over the month but had decreased slightly over the year.
In the energy sector, gasoline price growth slowed to 0.1% in March, while propane prices fell by 3.3%. However, over the year, both gasoline and propane prices saw increases of 25.2% and 19.3% respectively.
Healthcare costs witnessed a 2.1% increase, with medicines and medical products being notably affected. However, amidst these fluctuations, education costs in state-owned kindergartens remained unchanged, while private kindergarten fees experienced a marginal 0.1% rise.
Inflation within the paid services segment stood at 0.7% for March, with an annual inflation rate accelerating to 9.5%. Catering and hotel services saw a 0.5% increase over the month and hikes of 17.9% and 19.5% respectively over the year. Road transportation prices increased by 1.3% in March and 14.7% annually, while air tickets saw a monthly increase of 2.6% and an annual increase of 11.9%. Rental prices returned to normal levels, rising by 0.4% in March and 7.6% over the year.
In 2023, Uzbekistan's economy saw notable monthly fluctuations, with varying inflation rates reported throughout the year. October recorded a modest 1% inflation rate, while September closely followed at 1.2%. In August, inflation stood at 0.5%, while both June and July experienced deflation, with rates at 0.29% and 0.16%, respectively.
This trend in monthly fluctuations is part of a broader pattern seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over recent years. Since 2019, the CPI has generally exhibited a decreasing trend, with the exception of 2022. Specifically, the CPI figures for 2019, 2020, and 2021 were reported at 113.28%, 109.45%, and 108.62%, respectively. Although 2022 witnessed a slight uptick, reaching 110.88%, the CPI closed at 101.2% in December 2023, reaffirming Uzbekistan's positive economic trajectory.
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