Two tropical glaciers in Indonesia, among the few remaining in the world, are in the process of melting, and they could completely disappear by 2026 or even earlier due to the impact of an El Niño weather pattern, warned Indonesia's geophysics agency, known as BMKG, The Guardian reports.
The agency highlighted that the El Niño phenomenon could trigger an exceptionally harsh dry season in Indonesia, similar to the conditions experienced in 2019. This heightened dryness could elevate the risk of forest fires and jeopardize the availability of clean water supplies.
The tropical glaciers under threat, named the Eternity Glaciers, are situated in the Jayawijaya mountains in the easternmost part of Papua. The accelerating rate of melting poses a critical concern. Donaldi Permana, a climate researcher at BMKG, emphasized that the glaciers could vanish even before 2026, and El Niño could expedite their disappearance. Unfortunately, there appears to be limited potential for preventing this shrinkage, which might disrupt the local ecosystem and lead to a rise in global sea levels within a decade.
These tropical glaciers are a rarity, and the remaining ones are all at risk. A 2021 study published in the journal Global and Planetary Change tracked the retreat of glaciers in various tropical locations, including Papua, Kilimanjaro, the Andes, the Tibetan plateau, and the Himalayas. The research highlighted a consistent trend of ice loss, with acceleration observed in recent years.
Tropical glaciers are particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to their altitude-dependent survival. Researchers have noted that the shift from snowfall to rainfall, driven by changing precipitation patterns, is accelerating the rate of ice melting.
Notably, the Eternity Glaciers have experienced significant thinning, with their depth decreasing from 32 meters in 2010 to 8 meters in 2021. Additionally, their width has shrunk from 2.4 kilometers in 2000 to 230 meters in 2022. Past research led by Donaldi and U.S. academics uncovered intensified ice loss near Puncak Jaya, also known as the Carstensz Pyramid, during the strong El Niño event in 2015–16.
The compounding effects of global warming and El Niño have already contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in recent months, with July being declared the hottest month on record by the World Meteorological Organization.
Indonesia, a major coal exporter, is pursuing a net-zero emissions goal by 2060. However, its reliance on coal-fired power, which accounts for over half of its energy supply, poses a challenge. The country set ambitious targets last year, aiming to reduce emissions by 31.89% by 2030 on its own, and by 43.2% with international assistance.
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