Kazakhstan's annual inflation rate dropped to 8.5% in May, marking a 0.2 percentage point (p.p.) decline from April, the Bureau of National Statistics reports. In April, the inflation rate had decreased by 0.4 p.p. y/y.
Prices rose by 0.4% over the past month, compared to a 0.2 p.p. increase in April. To address inflationary pressures, the National Bank increased the base rate by 0.25 p.p. to 14.5% on May 31. The National Bank emphasized the need to continue its relatively strict monetary policy to reach a mid-term inflation target of 5%.
Over the past year, service costs in Kazakhstan rose by 13.9%, up from 13.5% in April. Non-food product prices increased by 7.6%, consistent with April's rate, while food product prices grew by 5.5%, down from 6.3% in April. Ten regions in Kazakhstan experienced inflation rates higher than the national average, with the highest rates in Karaganda (10.5%), Mangystau (10.2%), and Astana (10.4%).
In late May 2024, the National Bank published its macroeconomic survey results, showing that experts expected a 0.2 p.p. reduction in inflation from 8.7% in April. The actual inflation rate aligned with these expectations. Experts also predicted that inflation would decline to 6.8% next year and to 6% in 2026, despite the 2026 target rate being set at 5%.
In late April, the Applied Economics Research Center (AERC) adjusted its forecast for average annual inflation this year to 9.1%, up from 8.8% in January. Analysts observed that annual inflation has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2024.
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