Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has chosen Tajikistan for his first foreign visit since his re-election, signaling Islamabad's eagerness to strengthen regional ties.
On July 2, Sharif will meet with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe before they attend the SCO summit in Astana together. The two leaders are expected to discuss the implementation of agreements made during Rahmon’s 2022 visit to Pakistan, focusing on the CASA-1000 energy project and expanded cooperation in transport and security. Tajikistan seeks access to Pakistani ports, while Pakistan aims to become a transport hub for Central Asia.
Sharif's visit marks significant progress in Pakistan-Tajikistan relations, historically strained due to Pakistan’s past support of paramilitary groups in Afghanistan. Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Politics Analysis, views this visit as a positive step towards improving bilateral economic ties and increasing Pakistani investment in Tajikistan. Both nations, as SCO members, face challenges from terrorist activities, making security cooperation a key area of mutual interest.
The Trans-Afghan railway project, linking Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul, and Peshawar, promoted by Uzbekistan, is crucial for improving Tajikistan's transport connectivity. The shortest route to the sea for Tajikistan runs through Afghanistan to Pakistan, highlighting the strategic importance of stability in Afghanistan for regional trade.
For example, the distance from Dushanbe to the port of Karachi or Gwadar is approximately 2,720 km, compared to 3,400 km to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Tajikistan is separated from Pakistan by the Wakhan Corridor, a 350 km strip of Afghan territory.
However, Afghanistan's instability hampers Pakistan's potential as a trade conduit to Central Asia. The CASA-1000 project, intended to transfer 1,000 megawatts of electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, remains incomplete. The World Bank had suspended funding after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan but resumed support in May 2024 following appeals from project participants.
Despite this, construction delays persist due to energy shortages in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It was expected that Tajikistan would supply 70% of the electricity and Kyrgyzstan 30%. However, both countries have experienced their own energy shortfalls.
Pakistan remains committed to enhancing trade with Central Asia, evidenced by a significant increase in trade turnover with Tajikistan, reaching $52.7bn in 2024, 1.6 times higher than in 2022. Islamabad also promotes regional financial integration and aims to balance economic, religious, and ideological interests with competition from India.
Vorobyov highlights the complexities of economic relations between Pakistan and post-Soviet Central Asian countries, citing legislative differences, poverty, and underdeveloped infrastructure. Yet, improved transport links and economic cooperation could mutually benefit Central Asia and Pakistan, provided Afghanistan’s situation stabilizes.
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