Oreshnik missile: Russia's new missile altering the strategic balance – What we know about the hypersonic attack in Ukraine

A new type of Russian missile "Oreshnik": strikes on Dnipro

In November 2024, Russia deployed the newest medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) "Oreshnik" for the first time, sparking serious concern and heated discussions on the international stage. President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the strike targeted the "Yuzhmash" plant in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, declaring the missile to be hypersonic and “intercept-proof,” drawing attention to its potential capabilities.

The "Oreshnik" missile is seen as a response to American and British missile strikes on the Kursk and Bryansk regions, serving as a signal to the West of Russia's readiness to increase pressure within the framework of the conflict in Ukraine.

The strike on Dnipro: What happened?
On the morning of November 21, 2024, Russia used a new type of medium-range ballistic missile, known as the "Oreshnik." The Russian Armed Forces struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro (formerly Dnipropetrovsk). The missile delivered six warheads, which were deployed against separate targets.

The primary target of the attack was the Southern Machine-Building Plant ("Yuzhmash"), where Ukraine was attempting to organize the maintenance and repair of Western heavy armored vehicles. Once a key facility during the Soviet era, "Yuzhmash" specialized in the production of missile and space technology.

High-ranking officials reported that the damage was limited, but the mere fact of combat deployment of this type of missile has drawn interest and concern among Western military analysts. President Vladimir Putin emphasized:

"Modern air defense systems existing in the world, as well as the missile defense systems being developed by the Americans in Europe, cannot intercept such missiles—this is simply not possible," said Vladimir Putin.

Where was the "Oreshnik" missile launched from?
The newest "Oreshnik" missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar testing range in the Astrakhan region. The range is historically known for conducting ballistic missile tests since the mid-20th century. It was here that the USSR launched its first copy of the German V-2 missile on October 18, 1947.

The distance from the range to Dnipro is about 800 kilometers, making "Oreshnik" the longest-range weapon used in combat in Europe.

How did NATO react to Russia's missile strike on Dnipro? Diplomatic tension
In response, NATO foreign ministers are set to convene in Brussels, according to a diplomatic source cited by TASS. The meeting will focus on the use of "Oreshnik" and its potential impact on the alliance’s security and support for Ukraine.

Official comments from NATO have not yet been released, but deep concern about the new Russian weapon is being expressed in unofficial meetings.

Notably, the agenda for the meeting was not announced in advance. Experts suggest this is due to procedural uncertainty within NATO and the reshuffling of key leadership, including the new Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

What is known about "Oreshnik"?
According to Western experts, the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile is a modification of the RS-26 "Rubezh" mobile ground-based missile system, which was developed based on the RS-24 "Yars."

Key characteristics include:

Range: Between 2,000 and 6,000 kilometers.

Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs): Equipped with guided warheads. Ukrainian sources reported six warheads were used during the strike on "Yuzhmash."

Hypersonic speed: Reaching up to 11 Mach, making interception virtually impossible for existing air defense systems.

How fast does the "Oreshnik" missile travel?
Reports indicate that the "Oreshnik" missile reached its target in Dnipro in just 15 minutes. Its high speed and maneuverability render it inaccessible to most modern missile defense systems, including American systems in Europe.

According to Ukrainian sources, the peak speed of "Oreshnik" was measured at 11 Mach.

How does "Oreshnik" affect the conflict in Ukraine?
The newest "Oreshnik" missile possesses significant advantages:

Accuracy: The circular error probable (CEP) does not exceed a hundred meters, typical for ballistic missiles of this class.

Destructive potential: The deployment of multiple missiles results in the massive destruction of area targets. For example, the launch of six "Oreshnik" missiles delivers 36 warheads, making interception by most systems impossible.

Strategic advantage: The use of "Oreshnik" in its non-nuclear variant allows Russia to showcase its power without resorting to nuclear escalation.

The advanced hypersonic maneuvering blocks used in "Oreshnik" are capable of penetrating missile defense systems, including American and European ones. The only exception is Russia's S-500 complex, which can intercept such targets.

Western reactions to "Oreshnik": What is the West saying?
The use of "Oreshnik" caught Western countries completely off guard. Until this point, there had been no reports of the development or testing of this weapon. Western experts claim the missile is a "compilation of old technologies," but this does not diminish its threat.

"Putin is sending a terrifying message to NATO," read headlines in Western media.

Meanwhile, claims about the high cost of producing the "Oreshnik" missile are also being questioned. If the missile is indeed based on a simplified version of the "Yars" system, it could, in fact, be significantly cheaper.

Challenges for NATO and global security
The primary threat associated with "Oreshnik" lies in its ability to shift the strategic balance. NATO, despite assurances of its support for Ukraine, faces coordination challenges in countering such technologies.

At a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council, it was stated that the missile strike "should not change the course of the conflict," but it is clear that discussions will continue, including at the level of the North Atlantic Council.

THAAD vs. "Oreshnik": An Uneven Struggle
The American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system is theoretically advertised as capable of intercepting hypersonic warheads. However, its exorbitant cost (over $1.2 bn per battery) and the lack of real combat testing make it an unlikely response to Russia's "Oreshnik." Additionally, the chances of Ukraine acquiring this expensive weapon from the U.S. and using it effectively against Russia remain extremely low.

These points are emphasized by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who asserts that Ukraine and its Western allies are incapable of countering the "Oreshnik."

“Dozens of self-dividing warheads attack a target at ten Mach—about three kilometers per second. The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees. Everything in the explosion's epicenter disintegrates into elementary particles, turning into dust,” stated Vladimir Putin.

He added that the mass deployment of "Oreshnik" in a non-nuclear configuration can rival the destructive power of tactical nuclear weapons.

Tactical Capabilities of the "Oreshnik" Missile
The application of "Oreshnik" makes it highly effective against fortified targets:

Depth of Impact: Capable of destroying targets up to four floors deep.

High Accuracy: Allows strikes on military facilities and defense industry enterprises.

Hypersonic Speed: Makes the missile nearly invulnerable to modern air defense systems.

Tactical Features of "Oreshnik" Usage
The "Oreshnik" attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro showcased several key tactical features:

Trajectory:

• Launched on a steep trajectory, reaching an altitude of about 2,000 km.
• This reduced the flight range, adapting it to hit a target 800 km from the launch site (Kapustin Yar).
• Warheads re-entered the atmosphere at a sharp angle, minimizing interception risks.

Multi-Target Impact:

• Warheads released smaller payloads, distributing them across an area.
• This makes the missile effective for attacking large objects or infrastructure.

Limited Damage:

• Senior Ukrainian officials reported limited damage since the warheads contained no explosives.

Putin stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense and General Staff select "Oreshnik" targets. Priority targets include:

Ukrainian defense enterprises.

Decision-making centers in Kyiv.

Russia promises to warn civilians and citizens of friendly nations in advance, urging them to evacuate dangerous zones to minimize humanitarian impact.

Operational Range of "Oreshnik"
Under the now-terminated Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) had ranges from 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers. The use of "Oreshnik" surpasses previous limitations, showcasing Russia's capabilities in this category.

Unique Features of the Hypersonic "Oreshnik"
THAAD and most other missile defense systems are not equipped to counter missiles like "Oreshnik," which stands out for several reasons:

Mass Strikes: Dozens of warheads attack simultaneously, overwhelming missile defense systems.

Hypersonic Speed and Maneuverability: Virtually uncatchable by existing technologies, except potentially the Russian S-500 system.

“The mass deployment of ‘Oreshnik’ guarantees the destruction of area targets, even with non-nuclear payloads,” Putin emphasized.

INF Treaty: The Agreement That Ended an Era and Its Consequences
In October 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump announced Washington's intention to withdraw from the treaty, accusing Russia of violating it. The treaty officially ceased to exist on February 2, 2019. This marked the beginning of a new era of the arms race, especially in the context of the development and deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles.

NATO's eastward expansion after the collapse of the USSR further aggravated the situation. NATO missile deployment zones moved closer to Russia's borders by a thousand kilometers, reducing the flight time of American missiles to Russia's European region to just a few minutes.

Why Is the “Oreshnik” Dangerous?

The use of the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) “Oreshnik” underscores the concerns associated with the termination of the INF Treaty. The strike on the “Yuzhmash” plant in Dnipro on November 21 demonstrated the missile’s capabilities, showcasing for the first time in real conditions the performance of its independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV).

According to analytical data, the missile was launched to an altitude of about 2,000 kilometers. This explains how it managed to cover a long distance despite trajectory constraints. Six guided warheads hit the target area at steep angles, confirming the use of a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle.

General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan Signing the INF Treaty

General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan during the signing of the INF Treaty, 1987.

These characteristics make the “Oreshnik” an extremely effective weapon against even heavily protected targets. Its speed and maneuverability virtually eliminate interception by existing air defense systems, while its yield is comparable to tactical nuclear weapons.

MRBM Use in Global History

Before the use of the “Oreshnik” during the special operation in Ukraine, MRBMs had only been used in combat once: Iran’s strikes on Israeli territory. However, the “Oreshnik” surpasses Iranian counterparts in range, power, and technological capabilities.

Impact of “Oreshnik” Deployment on Global Strategic Balance

The development and use of the “Oreshnik” highlight strategic shifts triggered by the INF Treaty's termination. This weapon becomes a key factor in the arms race, particularly in the context of:

• The threat of deploying U.S. missiles near Russian borders.
• Growing tensions between Russia and NATO countries.

As President Vladimir Putin noted, the “Oreshnik”’s capabilities enable it to strike both military targets and key decision-making centers, making it a significant element of modern Russian military strategy.

Design and Operation of the Oreshnik MIRV Missile

The “Oreshnik” missile, with its independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), is designed to deliver multiple warheads to separate targets. This is achieved through several operational phases:

1. Launch: The missile lifts off, powered by the engines of the first stage, quickly accelerating and aligning with the programmed trajectory.
2. First Stage Separation: After the engines complete their burn, the first stage is jettisoned, shedding the spent engines and empty fuel tanks.
3. Ballistic Trajectory Flight: The missile’s MIRV separates from the upper stage, transitioning to a spaceborne trajectory toward its target.
4. Warhead Deployment: In the final stage, the MIRV orients itself using onboard guidance systems, directing each warhead to a separate target.

This process makes MIRVs especially dangerous, as a single missile can strike multiple objects, including large-area targets.

Expert Opinions: Old Technology in a New Form?

According to Western analysts, despite Putin's claims that the “Oreshnik” is a new hypersonic weapon, its design is based on existing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technologies.

“All ballistic missiles of this range are hypersonic,” notes Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Lewis adds that there are already interceptor missiles, such as Arrow 3 (Israel) and SM-3 Block 2A (USA), designed to counter such threats. However, the real effectiveness of these systems remains uncertain.

Analysis of Oreshnik Debris

After the strike on Dnipro, experts examined photographs of the missile’s debris. Key findings include:

• Two of the largest missile fragments were identified as parts of the warhead platform, which delivers munitions from space to the ground.
• A characteristic feature of ICBMs — the ability to deliver multiple warheads to different targets — was confirmed during the site examination.

Experts noted that the “Oreshnik”’s capability to deploy multiple warheads over a target area significantly increases the weapon’s destructive potential.