Uzbekistan projects 6.5% inflation by end-2026 as tariffs and global pressures factor into outlook

Uzbekistan’s inflation is projected to slow to 6.5% by the end of 2026, with forecasts already factoring in planned increases in energy tariffs, Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov said on April 29.

Speaking at a press conference in Tashkent, Ishmetov noted that annual inflation stood at 7.1% in March. However, a number of internal and external factors are expected to continue influencing price dynamics throughout the year.

Among key drivers is the government’s decision to raise gas and electricity tariffs by up to 10% starting May 1 each year. In addition, geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, are contributing to rising global prices, which may also feed into domestic inflation.

According to Central Bank officials, all these factors have been incorporated into current inflation forecasts. Ishmetov added that while the baseline scenario remains moderate, there are also riskier scenarios depending largely on global oil price trends and their duration.

“If global inflationary pressures begin to significantly affect our economy, we will take the necessary measures to maintain tight monetary policy conditions,” he said, noting that the situation will be closely monitored.

Uzbekistan has been targeting a steady inflation rate of 5% under a presidential decree adopted in 2019, with the initial goal of achieving this by 2023. However, the timeline has been revised multiple times, and the Central Bank now expects to reach the target by the end of 2027.

Ishmetov earlier noted that delays in achieving the target are driven by both domestic and external factors. In particular, he highlighted the role of non-monetary factors, including the pace of government-led market liberalization reforms, which also shape inflation expectations.