The World Bank's latest World Economic Prospects report provides an optimistic outlook for Uzbekistan's economic growth in the coming years. The report estimates a growth rate of 5.5% for Uzbekistan in 2023, with similar forecasts for the subsequent two years. This projection reflects a positive trend compared to the initial estimate of 4.9% at the beginning of the previous year.
The World Bank had already adjusted its forecast for Uzbekistan's economic growth during 2022, raising it from 4.9% to 5.1% in June and eventually reaching 5.5% in October.
Evaluating the economic situation in the broader Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, the World Bank highlights a notable increase in economic growth to 2.7% in 2023, compared to 1.2% in 2022. This growth is attributed to expanded domestic demand, stable labor market conditions, and renewed growth in Russia and Ukraine.
Central Asia saw an acceleration in economic growth, partly fueled by remittances, supporting demand in countries like Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Eastern Europe showed a return to positive growth values, with Ukraine recording a growth rate of 4.8%. Despite this positive trend, Ukraine's output remained 30% lower than before the Russian invasion.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan exhibits a stable economic outlook with consistent GDP growth throughout the forecast period. Projections indicate growth rates ranging from 3.2% in 2022 to forecasted 4.5% in 2025. Despite a slight downward adjustment in 2024, the country maintains positive economic momentum.
Kyrgyz Republic
The Kyrgyz Republic demonstrates moderate and steady GDP growth, with rates ranging from 3.5% in 2023 to forecasted 6.3% in 2024- 2025. Notably, the projections indicate no significant deviation from the initial estimates.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan exhibits robust economic decrease, maintaining rates between and 9.4% in 2021 to forecasted 4.5% in 2025. Therefore, the percentage change from 2021 to the forecasted GDP rate in 2025 for Tajikistan is approximately a decrease of 52.13%.
Based on the information provided by WB, it appears that Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic are positioned for relatively strong economic growth in the Central Asian region. The World Bank's latest World Economic Prospects report indicates an optimistic outlook for Uzbekistan's economic growth. The growth rate is estimated at 5.5% in 2023, with similar forecasts for the subsequent two years (2024 and 2025). This projection reflects a positive trend compared to the initial estimate of 4.9% at the beginning of the previous year. The World Bank had already adjusted its forecast for Uzbekistan's economic growth during 2022, raising it from 4.9% to 5.1% in June and eventually reaching 5.5% in October.
The Kyrgyz Republic demonstrates moderate and steady GDP growth, with rates ranging from 3.5% in 2023 to a forecasted 6.3% in 2024-2025. Notably, the projections indicate no significant deviation from the initial estimates, emphasizing the country's economic stability.
As for inflation, the report notes that, while headline inflation in the region has slowed with easing energy and food price pressures, it remains above target in most countries.
However, the report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a critical factor in determining the region's prospects. Excluding these two countries, growth rates in the region are expected to accelerate to 3.1% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.
Despite the positive outlook, the World Bank notes several risks, including geopolitical tensions, an escalation of conflict in the Middle East impacting energy prices and financing conditions, and potential adverse effects from higher-than-expected inflation. The bank underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks in the region, particularly related to the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, which could exacerbate human and economic losses.
The World Bank acknowledges that economic growth in the ECA region is expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends due to ongoing pandemic effects and the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. The pace of convergence in per capita income levels is predicted to be slow, reaching only 24% of the EU level in 2025.
Earlier Daryo reported anticipated economic growth ranges from 5.6% to 5.8% in 2023-2024, followed by a projected increase to 6.2% to 6.4% in 2025-2026, aligning with the objective of achieving a per capita GDP of $4,000 by 2030.
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