Kazakhstan at 20 million: populations and possibilities

In the middle of November, Kazakhstan reached a significant milestone: for the first time in its history, the population of the country hit 20mn people.   

Beneath this statistic lies an even more intriguing one. As of now, 70% of Kazakhstan’s residents are ethnic Kazakhs. 

These developments are points of pride for Kazakhstan, a country where participation in the USSR meant massive transfers of non-Kazakhs into the land and where achieving independence quickly resulted in a dramatic drop in population. Over a million Russians and hundreds of thousands of Germans emigrated from Kazakhstan in the first decade after independence, taking their knowledge and expertise with them. 

During the 1990s, Kazakhstan was reeling from a double blow. Not only did the country endure the massive exodus of skilled professionals from European backgrounds but the remaining population also experienced a significant decrease in fertility rates during the same period. These twin declines in population created huge political, social, and economic pressures that were felt for years to come. In particular, this population loss had significant implications for the Kazakh labor market, social security system, health care system, and educational policies. Demographic changes in the wider population also transformed people’s individual lives, affecting their cultural values, and impacting their religious beliefs. 

But now the journey that started with independence in 1991 has reached new territory.  The country is both larger in population and stronger in its sense of ethnic identity. 

What will the future of Kazakhstan be like for the 20mn people that currently call it home?  While the answer remains to be seen, there are four significant demographic trends currently shaping Kazakhstan’s identity and trajectory that bear exploring: 

1. Changes in Ethnic Composition (Demographic Transformation: From Ethnic Minority to Majority)

Having been an ethnic minority in their “own” country for long periods during Kazakhstan’s tumultuous history, ethnic Kazakhs have now surpassed other nationalities to become the largest population group.  Also, immigrants from other Central Asian ethnicities are making up an increasingly large segment of the country’s population.

According to the 1970 Census, only one-third of the total population of Kazakhstan was ethnic Kazakhs. During that period, over half the population was made up of Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians. A further 7% of the population was ethnic Germans. By the time Kazakhstan gained its independence, the proportion of ethnic Kazakhs had gradually reached 40% of the total population (according to the 1989 Census), although half of the country was still identified as being “Slavic” and German.

Today, according to the most recent Census (2021), ethnic Kazakhs constitute 70% of the total population of Kazakhstan. In the 2009 Census, the proportion of ethnic Kazakhs stood at 63%. The share of ethnic Russians, together with Ukrainians, Belarusians, and ethnic Germans now equals only 19% of Kazakhstan’s population, compared to 27% in 2009. Since 1989, the population of these “European” ethnic groups in Kazakhstan has fallen by over 4.3mn people. Although the largest drop happened during the first decade of independence (2.5mn people), Kazakhstan has “lost” around 700,000 people identified as ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Germans over the last ten years.

The growth of the native Kazakh population has been accompanied by a significant influx of immigrants from other Central Asian ethnicities. In particular, over the last 10 years, the number of ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Kyrgyz people, has increased by 35%. Since 1989, the number of people in Kazakhstan from these three ethnic groups has nearly doubled, from 370, 000 to almost 700, 000. Economic and ethnic factors have driven both the growing immigration of Central Asians and settlers from China and Mongolia to Kazakhstan and a continuing outflow of the Slavic population from Kazakhstan. 

Ethnic “repatriation” programs, that is programs aimed at returning ethnic Kazakhs to their “historic homeland”, have been responsible for the majority of recent immigration to Kazakhstan. Despite a significant contribution to Kazakhstan’s population growth, the economic and social impact of this type of ethnic repatriation is not yet clear. What is certain, however, is that repatriation has brought with it new political, social, and economic challenges. Kazakhstan has had to cope with rising costs for government-provided social assistance, deal with the newcomers’ patterns of settlement and their need for housing, as well as handle problems related to cultural adaptation and language issues.

2. Changes in the Role of the Kazakh Language (Challenges and Implications of the Kazakh Language Revival)

Dramatic shifts in Kazakhstan’s ethnic composition and the revival of the Kazakh ethnic identity have had huge political, cultural, and social implications. One of the most problematic issues of the last thirty years has been the status and use of the Kazakh language. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first Kazakh President, deemed the ethnic Kazakh language as the “nucleus of the entire cultural identity of Kazakhstan’s society”. The current government of Kazakhstan shares his view on the centrality of the Kazakh language.

Thirty years after Kazakhstan became an independent country, many ethnic Kazakhs and a large portion of members from other ethnic groups living in Kazakhstan still lack basic communication skills in the Kazakh language. For example, according to the latest Census, 20% of Kazakhstan’s population age 5 years and older does not speak the Kazakh language and only 50% use Kazakh as a means of communication in their everyday life. Only 25% of ethnic Russians living in Kazakhstan indicated that they possess the ability to communicate in the Kazakh language. 

With significant losses in the “European” population and rising immigration from groups with Central Asian ethnicities, the role of the Russian language will undoubtedly decrease and the share of people speaking the Kazakh language will broaden in Kazakhstan. However, this will not be a rapid process. Even among people of Turkic origin who currently live in Kazakhstan and whose native languages are similar to the Kazakh language, one-third admitted their inability to speak in Kazakh. 

3. Changes in Religious Practice (Religious Transformation in Kazakhstan: From Atheism to Diverse Faiths)

The changes to the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan have generated another pressing issue, a shift in religious identity. For 70 years under the Soviet regime, religion was unrelentingly suppressed, and the entire population of Kazakhstan was officially categorized as atheist. With the fall of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the Communist regime, many people in Kazakhstan have turned to religion to fill the ideological vacuum left behind. As a result, today less than 3% of Kazakhstan’s population claims to be “not religious”, according to the latest Census. While not radical in their ideology, 70% of Kazakhs identify as Muslims, making Islam the country’s dominant religion. Traditionally, the Muslims of Kazakhstan are ethnic Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Tatars, and Uighurs. The next largest religious group is Christians who make up 17% of the population.  The Christian population is mostly comprised of ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, and Belarusians. 

While it is true that religious groups in Kazakhstan generally coexist peacefully, demonstrating tolerance towards each other’s beliefs, religious freedom is a very sensitive issue in Kazakhstan. There have been cases of the Government suppressing smaller religious groups such as the Jehovah's Witnesses and, in some instances, people are afraid to express their true beliefs. 

4. Changes in the Level of Young, Skilled Workers (Balancing Immigration and Development: Challenges to Kazakhstan's Future)

The current era of immigration to Kazakhstan raises questions as to whether the increase in certain types of immigrants is truly positive for the country’s future. Despite having been beneficial to population growth, the influx of ethnic Kazakhs through repatriation programs and the growth in immigrants from neighboring Central Asian countries is sometimes perceived as a danger to Kazakhstan’s development.  Poor, unskilled, undereducated immigrants are considered by some to be a threat to the country’s political and ethnic stability.

Perhaps, the biggest issue at play here is the gains and losses in highly skilled professionals through ethnicity-based immigration and emigration. The question must be asked, “Is the loss of skilled Russians and Germans being replaced with the same or higher quality immigrants in regards to skills and education?” According to official statistics, Kazakhstan is experiencing a trend of losing some of its young and working-age population. An even more alarming development is the continuous emigration of highly skilled workers or people with degrees in technical fields. The official data shows that the outflow of technical professionals from Kazakhstan is being accompanied by an increasing amount of emigration by individuals with higher education, including specialized vocational secondary education. 

While the official numbers do not seem to indicate that Kazakhstan is having an extensive “brain drain” problem, it is obvious that the permanent emigration of trained and skilled workers is depleting the country’s educated population, depriving it of an important resource for development. This is especially concerning now, at a time when Kazakhstan needs human capital to restructure its economy and to implement ambitious industrial projects. This loss in an educated workforce also threatens to significantly constrain the country’s plans to become a highly competitive country with a diversified economy.  Moving forward, the government will need to consider how to intentionally retain educated workers and attract skilled immigrants if it wants to successfully build the economy and raise standards of living. 

Kazakhstan at 20mn is truly a country facing challenge and change. Its history, however, has proven that it can successfully rebuild and renew, even after difficult times. The coming years will present a unique opportunity for the now heavily Kazakh population, and their fellow countrymen from varied backgrounds, to define, once again, what Kazakhstan stands for and how her people will live and thrive in the future. 

By Assel Nussupova

Assel Nussupova is a highly accomplished analyst with an extensive background in economics and over two decades of dedicated service to the Kazakh government. Holding a prestigious Master's Degree in Economics from Georgetown University in Washington, DC, she has become a recognized authority in the fields of macroeconomics, commodity markets, financial markets, and economic and social policies. With a profound understanding of Kazakhstan's economic landscape and a global perspective, Nussupova is a sought-after expert who continues to contribute valuable insights to the field of economics. Additionally, she is a prominent contributor to the Astana Times, where her articles provide readers with expert analysis and in-depth perspectives on economic matters.

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