Germany's interest in Central Asia has been on the rise, and recent diplomatic efforts, including the C5+1 and Germany summit, indicate a significant shift in its approach toward the region. Economic analyst Shuhrat Rasul shared insights on this evolving relationship and Germany's expanding interests in Central Asia.
Historically, Germany engaged in bilateral cooperation with individual Central Asian countries. However, the landscape changed with the initiation of the European Union and Central Asia summit in 2007, which was spearheaded by Germany. The C5+1 and German format has now emerged, with Germany increasing its engagement with the region, as evidenced by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier's visits to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan earlier this year.
The C5+1 format convenes leaders from the Central Asian countries alongside those from Russia, China, the USA, and Germany. Rasul sheds light on this format, stating that it offers the West a convenient perspective, viewing Central Asia as a potential economic and political union. While the West endorses the mutual integration of Central Asian countries, Rasul highlights internal differences and varying levels of readiness among these nations for such integration.
Germany's growing interest in Central Asia can be attributed, in part, to its need for oil products, particularly in light of sanctions against Russian oil. Kazakhstan has become a crucial player, ranking fourth in oil supply to Germany, and President Kassym Jomart Tokayev has expressed the potential for further increases in oil exports to Germany. This suggests that Germany is aiming to fill the void left by Russia through increased cooperation with Kazakhstan.
Furthermore, Germany has concerns about products subject to sanctions flowing into Russia through Central Asia. These concerns were openly discussed during the recent summit, highlighting Germany's strategic interests in the region.
Beyond oil, trade relations have seen a remarkable upswing. Under President Islam Karimov, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Germany hovered around €200mn annually. In 2022, this figure exceeded $1bn, with German businesses showing increased interest in Uzbekistan. Rasul attributes this to Uzbekistan's open-door policy under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Turkmenistan's vast natural gas reserves have also piqued the interest of the European Union and Germany. The "NABUKKO" project, designed to transport Turkmen gas to Europe via pipelines through the Caspian Sea, faces opposition from Iran and Russia. Overcoming these challenges is now a central goal for Germany and the EU.
When asked about the conditions Germany might set for Central Asian countries, Rasul pointed to the Western emphasis on human rights and gender equality in diplomatic discussions. However, he stressed that the primary focus remains economic cooperation, especially with Uzbekistan, the most populous nation in Central Asia. Rasul believes that Uzbekistan offers numerous opportunities for German businesses and that their arrival in the country holds great importance for Uzbekistan's development.
Rasul also drew parallels with the role German companies played in the development of the Chinese automobile industry, suggesting that a similar collaboration between Germany and Uzbekistan could be transformative.
In terms of creating favorable conditions for German business, Rasul expressed optimism, noting that Uzbekistan is taking steps to attract investors, including the establishment of an international arbitration court. He believes these initiatives will be welcomed by multinational companies looking to invest in Uzbekistan.
As Germany seeks to strengthen its ties with Central Asia, particularly in the economic sphere, the region may find itself becoming an increasingly important player on the global stage, with potential benefits for both sides in this evolving partnership.
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