Daryo Senior Editor Tawney Kruger got a special commentary from Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, an associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, and the author of "Informal Order" and the "State in Afghanistan," on the future developments of C5+1 relations.
The recent C5+1 meeting has marked a significant turning point in U.S. foreign policy towards Central Asia, signaling a renewed commitment to the region. For years, U.S. engagement in Central Asia had predominantly revolved around security cooperation, largely influenced by its involvement in Afghanistan. However, the abrupt and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan led to a loss of U.S. credibility in the region, leaving the future of U.S. interests uncertain.
The tide began to change with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the geopolitical importance of Central Asia and the need for a more comprehensive and robust U.S. engagement. The U.S. also acknowledges that a more holistic approach is required to foster cooperation and development in Central Asia.
"The United States seems to be developing a new strategy towards the region that for the first time seems to include serious discussion of economic and educational issues that are of deep interest to the states in the region. The strategy seems also to be addressing climate issues, water, and natural resources," says the expert.
However, the successful execution of this strategy hinges on several key factors. Central Asian leaders must prioritize regional cooperation, a facet that has not always been achievable in the past. The region's willingness to collaborate will significantly impact the U.S.'s ability to engage with Central Asia as a unified entity.
Additionally, the U.S.'s sustained attention to the region will be crucial. As the world's focus shifts toward U.S.-China relations, Central Asia's significance should not wane. Instead, the region is poised to play an increasingly vital role in the evolving global landscape.
In response to questions about China's role in Central Asia, the expert emphasized: "The bottom line is that the U.S. realizes that Central Asia is an important region in and of itself because of the central role it is playing in contemporary geopolitics. (There is) no great game. The U.S. understands that Russia and China will always have more influence in the region. They are neighbors - so they will always be close."
Furthermore, it appears that Central Asian states themselves are eager for greater U.S. involvement in the region. This desire arises from the recognition that diversified partnerships offer them more options concerning their relationships with larger neighboring states. Rather than a competitive "Great Game," this reflects the agency of Central Asian countries in shaping their futures.
Regarding concerns about a "race to the bottom," the expert expressed optimism about the region's economic trajectory, saying that the region is only developing upwards. But, the key challenge lies in political leadership committed to meaningful reforms. Investors seek countries capable of safeguarding their investments, and Central Asia's reputation in this regard has room for improvement. However, the expert believes that Uzbekistan's leadership is moving in the right direction.
While top-down reforms may not always yield sustainable results, the region's leaders must chart a course that combines economic development with political stability. Recent developments, such as those in China, underscore the need for diversified partnerships to mitigate economic risks. In essence, Central Asian states aim to bolster their agency and explore avenues for long-term growth and stability.
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