Iran's oil production and exports surged in August, despite U.S. sanctions, with data from industry trackers suggesting that Iran's ability to bypass sanctions and the U.S.'s selective enforcement played roles. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and reimposition of sanctions, Iran's oil exports have increased, including to China, Reuters reports.
SVB International estimated August oil production at 3.15mn barrels per day (bpd), the highest since 2018, and exports just under 2mn bpd.
Experts noted that Iran employs tactics such as ship-to-ship transfers and manipulating GPS transponders to evade sanctions. Analysts believe that Iran's improved techniques and discounted oil sales to China bolster its exports. The U.S. State Department maintains that sanctions enforcement continues, while acknowledging fluctuations in oil export data.
Iran's oil is also directed to countries like Syria and Venezuela. If the estimated production rate of 3.15mn bpd holds, it will be the highest since 2018. TankerTrackers.com assessed August crude and condensate exports at 1.92mn bpd, the highest monthly rate this year.
While Iran boosts its output, OPEC+—including OPEC and Russia—is cutting output to stabilize the oil market, which has been influenced by economic concerns. The lack of transparency in the U.S.'s Iran oil policy is seen as impacting global energy security, especially as some OPEC+ members reduce output.
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