Emergency security measures remain in place in Moscow after a rebellion by Wagner mercenaries that has shaken the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As the situation unfolds, several key questions arise regarding Putin's next steps, the actions of rebel leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the future of the Wagner Group, and the implications for the war in Ukraine.
The recent events have presented the greatest challenge to Putin's authority since he was elected president over two decades ago. Experts suggest that while the immediate risk seems contained, Putin emerges from the situation looking weakened rather than strong.
Putin's strong aversion to betrayal was evident in his televised speech on June 24, where he condemned Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, for committing an act of treachery and described it as a betrayal. It remains unclear whether Putin is currently in Moscow or what his next move will be. Experts and analysts anticipate that he may react forcefully, either militarily against Ukraine or by purging those within Russia who have been unsupportive, resulting in a more authoritarian and brutal regime.
The Fate of Prigozhin
Meanwhile, questions surround Prigozhin's plans in Belarus, considering his role in the rebellion. Although the charge of armed mutiny against him has been dropped, his future and the guarantees of his security remain uncertain. Prigozhin, known for operating in the shadows and carrying out tasks for the Kremlin, is unlikely to disappear quietly. He has spent years doing work for the Kremlin, from fighting in Syria to fighting in Ukraine in 2014, when Russian forces annexed Crimea. Observers also question the extent of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko's control over Prigozhin and the potential threat posed by Wagner forces in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.
The Future of the Wagner Group?
Regarding the fate of the Wagner Group, their days as an independent army were already numbered. Videos on social media have shown Wagner troops leaving the city of Rostov-on-Don, where they had taken control of military bases. The governor of Voronezh, which is halfway between Rostov and Moscow, has said Wagner forces are also leaving his region.
The rebellion has accelerated the group's diminishing autonomy, with pressure to integrate them into the Russian defense ministry. While charges have been dropped against those involved in alleged mutiny, it is unclear how they will be integrated into the regular Russian military, or if the regular soldiers will serve alongside them. There are concerns that the fighters may return to existing conflict zones in Ukraine or follow Prigozhin west to Belarus, potentially posing a threat to Kyiv.
Implications for the war in Ukraine?
The rebellion and its aftermath have raised questions about the impact of the war in Ukraine. The Wagner Group has played a significant role in Russia's campaign, particularly in capturing strategic territories, the city of Bakhmut, for instance. Russia claims the rebellion has not affected its Ukraine campaign, but the demoralizing effect on its forces cannot be ignored. Some anticipate potential in-fighting among rival units as a result of the events. Ukrainian military leaders see the unrest in Russia as a window of opportunity and have launched a counter-offensive to reclaim occupied territories.
A former US ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, told the reporters that Ukrainian forces were in "a good position" to exploit tactical weaknesses exposed by the sudden movement of Wagner fighters.
What did the U.S. and world leaders know in advance?
Concerns have also been raised about what the United States and other countries knew in advance. U.S. spy agencies reportedly detected signs of Prigozhin's plans and briefed President Joe Biden and key congressional leaders. Intelligence indicated the massing of weapons and equipment near the Russian border. President Biden held discussions with the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK amid concerns about Putin's control over Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal. The U.S. had been tracking the deteriorating relationship between Prigozhin and Russian defense officials, indicating the war in Ukraine was not going well for Wagner and the regular military.
As per many news outlets, the key trigger was a decree on June 10 by Russia's defense ministry ordering all volunteer detachments - like the Wagner Group - to sign contracts with the government, which would effectively be a takeover of Prigozhin's mercenary troops.
Officials told the paper "There were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up" - but the exact nature of Prigozhin's plans wasn't clear until shortly before the mutiny began.
President Putin was also told by his own intelligence that Prigozhin was plotting something, the paper reported. It is not clear precisely when he was told that, but it was "definitely more than 24 hours ago", the paper quoted a U.S. official as saying on June 24.
What do the Russian people think?
The reaction of the Russian people to the crisis is also under scrutiny. Putin's address to the nation during the unfolding events aimed to assert his authority. However, some analysts believe that the lack of a timely and proper response from the president could lead to blame being placed on Putin. While it is challenging to gauge overall Russian public opinion, the sight of civilians applauding Wagner units in Rostov raises concerns among the country's leaders.
"Many inside the elite will personally blame Putin for the fact that everything went so far and that there was no proper reaction from the president in good time. Therefore, this whole story is also a blow to Putin's positions," a leading Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote on Telegram.
As Wagner's troops left the city they had effectively taken control of during their rebellion, they were greeted by an apparently supportive crowd who cheered, clapped, and took photos.
However, some residents had seemingly rushed to leave the city by train on June 24 after Wagner's arrival.
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