The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its Asian Outlook- 2023 report, predicts Turkmenistan's gross domestic product will grow 6.5% in 2023, compared to 6.2% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2021.
This is the highest growth rate in the Central Asian region this year, while Kazakhstan is projected at 3.2%, Kyrgyzstan at 4.5%, Tajikistan at 5.5%, and Uzbekistan at 5%.
"Projected higher revenue from hydrocarbon exports will keep the state budget near balance this year and next", the ADB report said.
Turkmenistan supplies its gas to China, Russia, Azerbaijan (via Iran), and Uzbekistan and its electricity to Afghanistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The country also exports petroleum products, textiles, mineral fertilizers, and foodstuffs.
According to the ADB forecast, inflation is projected to remain high at around 10.0% in 2023 and 2024, compared to 12.5% in 2021.
"The outlook assumes no change in foreign exchange policy or banks’ practice of lending mainly to state-owned enterprises."
The report said hydrocarbon production and export growth contributed to the economic recovery in 2022.
"Expansion was spurred by the opening of borders, a gradual resumption of international flights, greater domestic mobility, increased trade, and revitalized services."
External debt of Turkmenistan is projected to be minimal, with scheduled debt amortization and government aversion to new borrowing.
"With extensive repayment of external loans, external debt declined from an estimated 8.4% of GDP at the end of 2021 to 6.3% a year later."
Credits: Eziz Boyarov, Ashgabat
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