After an Azerbaijani Embraer E190 aircraft was allegedly shot down by Russian air defense forces on December 25, 2024, tensions between Moscow and Baku escalated rapidly. President Ilham Aliyev issued strong statements against Russia, and Azerbaijan responded by shutting down the Russian cultural center, "Russian House" In retaliation, Russian state media began discussing the potential expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Russia.
What caused this sudden rift between the two nations? What underlying factors are driving this diplomatic chill? The answers lie ahead.
A Sudden Shift in Relations
When Ukrainian forces seized territory in Russia's Kursk region late last summer, President Vladimir Putin made an unexpected visit to Azerbaijan without offering any explanation. In Baku, he was warmly received by President Ilham Aliyev. Photos from the meeting depicted a friendly gathering at Aliyev's seaside dacha, suggesting a close and familiar rapport between the two leaders.
However, that apparent warmth quickly faded. In December, an AZAL Embraer E190 aircraft en route from Baku to Grozny crashed while making an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, claiming the lives of 38 people.
In the immediate aftermath, Russian media speculated on possible causes, ranging from an oxygen tank explosion to a bird strike. But President Aliyev dismissed these theories, issuing a forceful statement directly accusing Russian officials of responsibility for the crash. He demanded accountability and urged Moscow to acknowledge its role.
In response, President Putin called Aliyev twice to personally apologize. Yet tensions only deepened. By early February, Azerbaijan announced the closure of the House of Russia, a cultural project under the Russian federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo. Baku justified the move by stating that the organization was not officially registered in the country, effectively suspending its activities.
Media War Escalates
Enraged by the closure of the House of Russia, which had operated in Baku since 1997, Russian propaganda launched a wave of attacks against Azerbaijan.
The first blow came from Russian State Duma deputy and former boxer Nikolai Valuev, who criticized the Azerbaijani government on his Telegram channel. In response, Baku swiftly declared him persona non grata—a diplomatic term used to expel or reject an individual from a country.
Soon after, Andrei Pinchuk, a commentator for Tsargrad TV and a self-proclaimed former Minister of State Security of the Donetsk People's Republic, accused President Ilham Aliyev of “extreme rudeness.” He suggested that Russia should deal with such “friends” accordingly:
“Are you shutting down Rossotrudnichestvo? Then shut down the Sadovod market,” he said, referencing a Moscow marketplace where many Azerbaijanis work.
Ultranationalist blogger Vladislav Pozdnyakov took things further, calling for the dissolution of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. His proposals included:
- Seizing Azerbaijani-owned businesses,
- Forcing Azerbaijanis to fight in Ukraine or revoking their citizenship,
- Expelling labor migrants and imposing a visa regime with Azerbaijan.
He declared that Russia should respond not with weakness but from a "position of sovereignty."
Baku did not remain silent. Azerbaijani media outlets hit back, branding Rossotrudnichestvo personnel as “Russian spies.” The diplomatic standoff intensified when Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Russia was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, prompting Baku to summon the Russian ambassador in retaliation.
Azerbaijan’s state-run AZTV escalated the rhetoric further, bringing up historical grievances. The channel blamed Russia for:
- The 1990 Black January crackdown, when Soviet troops killed protesters in Baku,
- The 1992 Khojaly massacre in Karabakh,
- The 2020–2024 Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh, calling it a "treasonous operation."
As if that weren’t enough, AZTV accused Putin himself of trying to "block Baku" during the Second Karabakh War in 2020.
With tensions flaring on all fronts, the rift between Moscow and Baku is deepening, and neither side appears willing to back down.
Russia’s Grip on Azerbaijan Weakens
According to Russia’s 2021 census, approximately 475,000 Azerbaijanis live in the country. Trade ties between the two nations remain significant, with Azerbaijan’s State Statistics Committee reporting a bilateral trade turnover of around $4.8bn last year. Moscow is Baku’s third-largest trading partner, trailing only Turkey and Italy.
Beyond trade, Azerbaijanis hold prominent positions in Russia’s economy. According to Forbes, Azerbaijani businessman Vagit Alekperov, the former head of Lukoil, topped the list of Russia’s billionaires last year.
However, the dynamics of Azerbaijan-Russia relations have shifted. In an interview with Daryo, political analyst Mukhtar Nazirov emphasized that Azerbaijan is no longer a “little brother” under Russia’s influence. Instead, the Kremlin now finds itself dependent on Baku in several key areas.
Azerbaijan’s Growing Leverage Over Russia
- Strategic Transit Hub – Azerbaijan plays a crucial role in the North-South Transport Corridor, which connects Russia to Iran. This route is vital for Moscow’s trade amid Western sanctions.
- Nagorno-Karabakh Resolution – While Russia traditionally positioned itself as a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, Azerbaijan successfully reclaimed control over Nagorno-Karabakh while Moscow was preoccupied with Ukraine. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces further eroded Russia’s influence in the Caucasus.
- Energy Power Shift – After the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil, Azerbaijan’s energy exports to Europe surged. Subsequently, Russia began channeling its own oil through Azerbaijan, highlighting Moscow’s growing reliance on Baku.
Beyond its economic and geopolitical weight, Azerbaijan’s location between Russia and Iran makes it a crucial player in regional trade. The Middle Corridor, an alternative route bypassing Russia, further enhances Azerbaijan’s strategic significance.
Additionally, Baku maintains strong ties with Turkey and Israel, reinforcing its independent foreign policy.
“Azerbaijan’s ability to navigate its own path in international affairs makes it difficult for any global power to pressure it,” Nazirov noted. “This is why Azerbaijan can now speak with Russia on equal footing.”
Azerbaijan: Russia’s Next Geopolitical Target?
During the conversation, political analyst Mukhtar Nazirov stressed that if Russia reaches an agreement with the United States on the Ukrainian conflict, its next focus may shift to Azerbaijan rather than Kazakhstan.
"If Moscow and Washington settle the Ukrainian issue, Azerbaijan will become the next independent actor in the post-Soviet space to challenge Russia’s influence," Nazirov noted.
He outlined key reasons why Azerbaijan could become a priority for Moscow:
- End of Russia’s Energy Dependence – A resolution to the Ukraine conflict could lead to a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil. This would eliminate Moscow’s current reliance on Azerbaijan for oil exports.
- Russia’s Strategic Interest in the South Caucasus – The Kremlin is unwilling to cede influence in the region. If Moscow pulls out, Turkey’s role will expand, weakening Russia’s geopolitical grip and severing its land connection to Iran.
Nazirov described the alleged downing of the Azerbaijani Embraer E190 as a turning point that accelerated the geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus.
“This incident further complicates Moscow’s already strained position, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. Meanwhile, Baku is making it clear that its dependence on Russia is a thing of the past. Azerbaijan is asserting itself as an independent regional power,” he concluded.
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