The Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, in collaboration with Turkmenistan, has commenced the first phase of the long-delayed Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline project, writes Vali Kaleji, an expert for the Central Asia-Caucus Analyst. The inaugural ceremony for the Serhetabat-Herat section was held on September 10, 2024, at the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border, attended by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and Taliban officials.
The pipeline is envisioned to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field, the second-largest in the world, through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. However, the initial phase, spanning 1,814 km, focuses solely on Afghanistan, as Pakistan and India have opted to observe progress before committing further.
A Pragmatic, Phased Approach
The Taliban leadership has adopted a four-phase construction strategy:
- Phase 1: Serhetabat to Herat. (Inaugurated September 10, 2024)
- Phase 2: Herat to Helmand. (TBA)
- Phase 3: Helmand to Kandahar. (TBA)
- Phase 4: Kandahar to the Pakistan border. (TBA)
By proceeding incrementally, the Taliban aims to demonstrate its capacity to manage the project securely and effectively, while also strengthening ties with Turkmenistan.
Economic and Regional Implications
When fully operational, TAPI is expected to transport 33 bn cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually, with:
- 5% allocated to Afghanistan,
- 47.5% to Pakistan,
- 47.5% to India.
Afghanistan stands to gain $1 bn annually in revenue and create over 12,000 jobs, with gas supply projected to fuel industrial and urban growth in key provinces such as Herat, Helmand, and Kandahar.
The pipeline will also diversify Turkmenistan’s export routes, providing a new southern channel and enhancing its leverage in the regional energy market.
Historical Challenges
The project, conceived in the 1990s and repeatedly stalled over three decades, faced multiple obstacles, including:
- Financial constraints,
- Security threats from ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban,
- Political tensions between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India.
Efforts to overcome these hurdles reflect the Taliban’s determination to gain international credibility and domestic legitimacy through economic development.
Leadership and Financial Structure
The pipeline is managed by TAPI Pipeline Company Limited (TPCL), a joint venture based in Dubai. Turkmen Gas owns an 85% stake, with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India sharing the remaining 15%. Notably, the first phase of the project is being executed without international financial aid, given the Taliban’s lack of recognition by global institutions.
Future extensions to Pakistan and India would require substantial investments, potentially involving the Asian Development Bank.
Observers and Challenges Ahead
Pakistan and India’s absence from the recent inauguration underscores their cautious stance on participating in the Taliban-led initiative. However, if the Taliban successfully completes the Afghan phases, both nations may reconsider their involvement.
The project faces ongoing risks, including:
- Ensuring security during construction and operation,
- Navigating regional disputes,
- Securing the estimated $7–8 bn needed for completion.
Broader Impact
TAPI is part of a broader Taliban strategy to revive energy and transit projects, such as CASA-1000, the Chabahar port initiative, and the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan railway. These efforts aim to rebuild Afghanistan’s economy, generate employment, and strengthen diplomatic ties with neighboring countries.
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