The Tajikistan government has revealed plans to substantially increase its budget for defence, law enforcement, and judiciary in 2025. The new allocation stands at TJS 4.7bn ($446mn), a rise of $92mn from the previous year’s budget of $354mn. The 2025 defence budget will represent 2.8% of Tajikistan's GDP, up from 2.6% in 2024. This adjustment highlights a prioritization of military and security expenditures.
Details regarding the distribution of these funds across specific departments are classified under the State Secrets Act. Recent concerns have arisen about financial management within the Ministry of Defense, particularly following a major scandal. In August 2024, the Agency for State Financial Control and Anti-Corruption disclosed that over TJS 120mn ($11.3mn) intended for military provisions, including clothing and food, had been embezzled. This led to a criminal investigation involving 52 individuals, including senior officials within the Defense Ministry, in one of the largest financial scandals affecting Tajikistan's defence sector.
The increase in Tajikistan’s defence budget aligns with broader regional trends. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan collectively spent approximately $1.8bn on military needs in 2023. Although specific figures for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are not available, it is anticipated that these countries have also increased their defence budgets in response to regional security dynamics.
Several factors are influencing the rise in defence budgets across Central Asia. Rising border disputes, exemplified by tensions between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and the political instability in Afghanistan following the Taliban's return to power, are key concerns. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has prompted Central Asian states to review and enhance their defence strategies in response to changing geopolitical conditions.
Traditionally, Central Asian states have depended on Russia for security through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, the security environment is becoming more diversified. Countries including Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Germany, France, China, and Belarus are increasingly involved in military cooperation with Central Asia. For instance, Turkey has expanded its defence cooperation by providing military technology such as drones, while China has strengthened its security role through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Despite the increase in defence spending, experts note that addressing security challenges requires more than financial resources. Political reforms, improved governance, and stronger civil institutions are crucial for achieving long-term stability. The region’s future security will depend on a balanced approach that addresses both external and internal challenges.
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