Tajikistan emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in 2024, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a growth rate of 6.5% for the year, the fDi Intelligence reports. This marks a continuation of the country's robust economic performance despite a projected slowdown from the peak growth of 9.4% in 2021. The country's GDP is expected to increase from $11.9 bn in 2023 to $13 bn in 2024.
While the global economy is predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2024, several countries around the world, especially in developing regions, are showing promising growth prospects. In Central Asia, alongside Tajikistan, Mongolia also shows a robust growth forecast of 6.5%. Other Asian nations like the Philippines are expected to grow by 6.2%. This indicates a resilient Asian economic sector amidst global uncertainties.
Tajikistan's economic growth in recent years was fueled by significant exports of precious metals and increases in both private investment and consumption. However, growth rates are expected to moderate to 4.5% by 2025, influenced by reduced remittance inflows, decreased foreign direct investment, and weaker export performance. Nonetheless, the country's nominal GDP continues to rise, with projections indicating a climb to $14.1 bn by 2025.
Despite its growth, Tajikistan faces challenges, notably in terms of inflation and debt levels. Consumer price index, which was declining, is projected to rise from 3.7% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2024, driven by global demand for fuel and food, as well as persistent supply chain disruptions. This upward trend in CPI is expected to continue into 2025, reaching 6.3%.
Outside of Central Asia, other nations are also experiencing significant growth. Guyana leads with an extraordinary GDP growth forecast of 33.9% due to its oil and gas sector boom. Similarly, Niger’s economy is expected to grow by 10.4%, the highest in Africa, driven by new oil exports.
The special administrative region of Macao is projected to achieve a growth rate of 13.9%, driven by a recovery in the gaming sector and private investments. Even smaller economies like Palau are set to experience double-digit growth rates, bolstered by the tourism sector’s recovery.
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