Uzbekistan is expected to notably increase its imports of Russian natural gas in the coming years, as per to projections by the Gazprombank Economic Forecasting Center. Gas imports from Russia to Uzbekistan could rise from the current level of about 3 bn cubic meters (bcm) to 12 bcm, reflecting a substantial shift in regional energy flows, news agency Vedomosti rpeort on December 22.
The forecast indicates that within the next five years, Gazprom’s natural gas supplies to Central Asia may more than double. Vedomosti reports that this expansion is part of Gazprom’s efforts to redirect gas volumes that were previously intended for the European market, following a sharp reduction in exports to Europe due to international sanctions. Overall, the potential supply volume to the region is estimated at around 19–20 bcm annually.
By 2030, Gazprom’s total gas exports to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are projected to increase by approximately 2.1–2.2 times. Uzbekistan is expected to account for the largest share of this growth. The increase in imports is linked to declining domestic gas production in the country, which is driving greater reliance on external supplies to meet internal demand.
The outlook for gas supplies to Kazakhstan remains less certain. While China has expressed reservations, Kazakhstan continues to pursue plans for a gas pipeline project that would transport Russian gas to China via its territory. The proposed pipeline could support gasification efforts in northeastern Kazakhstan and deliver up to an additional 10 bcm of gas per year.
Gazprom’s strategic pivot toward Central Asia comes as the company faces structural constraints in redirecting exports. Although the launch of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would expand export capacity to China, analysts note that it would still be insufficient to fully absorb the gas volumes previously sold to Europe. As a result, Central Asian markets, particularly Uzbekistan, are expected to play a growing role in Gazprom’s regional export strategy.
