Uzbekistan’s GDP is expected to rise to 7.4% by the end of 2025, up from 6.4% in 2024, before moderating slightly to 6.8% in 2026. This reflects a modest cooling in consumer activity while maintaining a strong overall growth trajectory, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
EDB in its new macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028 projected that inflation in Uzbekistan will moderate to 6.7% by the end of the year, approaching the Central Bank’s target level of 5%.
Investment activity remains strong, with large-scale projects underway, including the construction of nuclear and solar power plants, data centers, green hydrogen and ammonia production facilities, and the expansion of transport infrastructure. Urban development initiatives under the “New Uzbekistan” program are also progressing.`
Inflation and monetary policy
Inflation in Uzbekistan is expected to gradually decline from 7.4% in 2025 to 6.7% by 2026, representing a 0.7 percentage point decrease over one year. By 2028, it is projected to fall further to 6.3%, a total reduction of 1.1 percentage points from 2026 and 1.1 percentage points from the 2025 level.
This gradual easing suggests a controlled moderation in price growth, indicating that inflationary pressures are likely to stabilize while remaining moderate.
The pace of decline, averaging roughly 0.35 percentage points per year from 2025 to 2028, points to steady progress in achieving a more predictable economic environment.
The key interest rate is anticipated to remain relatively stable at an annual average of 13.7% in 2026, providing continued support for investment while balancing domestic demand. There is a potential for a gradual reduction to approximately 11,6% by year-end 2028 as inflation moderates.
Exchange rate projections
The average exchange rate is projected at UZS 12,800 per USD in 2026. Depreciation pressures are expected to arise mainly from rising imports, driven by strong domestic demand.
However, the Uzbek sum is supported by several factors. Relatively tight monetary policy helps sustain the attractiveness of sum-denominated assets, encouraging local investment and capital retention.
Rising exports, particularly of metals such as gold, also contribute positively, providing a steady inflow of foreign currency.
In addition, strong remittance inflows continue to bolster the currency, ensuring a reliable supply of foreign exchange and supporting overall exchange rate stability.
