Kyrgyzstan recorded the fastest per capita income growth in Central Asia over the past three years, outpacing its neighbors and drawing attention to the country’s rapid economic transformation, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Between 2022 and 2024, per capita income in Kyrgyzstan surged by 85%, nearly doubling to reach $2,500 — the highest increase in the region. In comparison, per capita income rose by 49% in Tajikistan, 42% in Kazakhstan, and 37% in Uzbekistan during the same period. The country also recorded an average annual economic growth rate of 9%, with growth accelerating to 13.1% in the first quarter of 2025.

The IMF forecasts Kyrgyzstan’s economy to grow by 6.8% this year, before moderating to around 5.25% in the medium term.

Kyrgyzstan Narrowing the Gap with Uzbekistan

Economic analyst Mirkomil Holboyev noted that if current trends continue, Kyrgyzstan could soon catch up with Uzbekistan in per capita income.

“If the average growth (in dollars) of the last three years continues, then Kyrgyzstan will almost catch up with our country in 2026, and from 2027 the average Kyrgyz will be richer than the average Uzbek,” Holboyev wrote. “By 2030, per capita income in Kyrgyzstan could be 1.5 times higher than in Uzbekistan.”

Globally, Kyrgyzstan ranks among the top performers in per capita income growth. Only Guyana, Armenia, and Georgia posted higher gains — Guyana due to its booming oil sector, and Armenia and Georgia through sustained economic reforms and external investment.

Tajikistan also placed in the global top 10 for per capita income growth, underscoring a broader upward trend in parts of the region.

“Although the regional situation is driving some of this growth, the fact that our neighbors are experiencing such positive momentum is good news for us,” Holboyev added.

Policy Shifts and Geopolitical Tailwinds

Kyrgyzstan’s performance is attributed to a combination of domestic policy reforms and external factors, according to economist Otabek Bakirov. He credits the rapid income growth to the assertive governance style adopted by President Sadyr Japarov and security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev, who came to power in 2021.

“The acceleration of income growth is due to many factors,” Bakirov wrote. “The most important is the recentralization policy of the Japarov and Tashiyev administration. They closed loopholes in budget, tax, and customs systems, nationalized abandoned assets, and dismantled criminal networks.”

He noted that the state budget has tripled in four years and the government has significantly increased its role in providing social support — a key source of rising incomes. However, he also warned that excessive centralization could hinder future growth if it leads to authoritarianism or corruption.

“If Kyrgyzstan repeats Karimov's mistake of the mid-90s and continues to tighten control without transparency, growth will slow,” Bakirov cautioned.

Another key driver of Kyrgyzstan’s recent gains is its role in facilitating parallel imports to Russia amid Western sanctions following the war in Ukraine. As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kyrgyzstan has become a strategic node for re-exporting goods from Europe and other regions into Russia.

“They’ve used the fog of war very effectively,” Bakirov said. “But it’s becoming increasingly clear that this advantage won’t last forever. If the political winds shift — for example, if the Democrats had won in the U.S. — Kyrgyzstan would likely have been hit by secondary sanctions.”

As of December 2023, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP stood at $13.99bn. The country’s GDP per capita was recorded at $1,269 in 2023, but the recent income surge indicates a sharp upward revision. The October 2024 census put the population at 7.25mn, a fraction of Uzbekistan’s 37.7mn as of April 2025.

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