Uzbekistan's economy shows resilience, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a year-end GDP growth of 5.7% for 2024, down from 6.3% in 2023.
While the GDP growth remains robust, inflation continues to pose a challenge, anticipated to hover around 10% in 2024. Despite this, improvements in the country's current account deficits are notable, decreasing from -7.7% of GDP in 2023 to -6.3% in 2024, with further reduction expected to -6.1% in 2025.
The government’s strategy to diversify the economy—traditionally dependent on energy—is showing results, with increased investments in key sectors such as agriculture, textiles, and technology. This shift is also contributing to a positive trend in the labor market. The unemployment rate is projected to decrease from 6.8% in 2023 to 6.3% in 2024, with further projections indicating a drop to 5.8% by 2025.
Looking ahead, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth is expected to maintain momentum, with projections of 5.7% growth for both 2025 and 2029. Inflation is anticipated to moderate, with forecasts suggesting a decline to approximately 9.4% by 2025, as the government continues its modernization efforts.
Regional Economic Landscape
In comparison, Kazakhstan is expected to experience moderate GDP growth of 3.5% in 2024, recovering from 5.1% in 2023. Inflation remains a concern but is projected to decrease from 14.6% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2024, and further to 7.2% in 2025. The country's current account balance is expected to improve, with a projected deficit of -1.5% in 2024, though it may widen again to -2.7% in 2025. The unemployment rate is stable at 4.8% for the next three years.
Kyrgyzstan forecasts a real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2024, up from 6.2% in 2023, though growth may moderate to 5.0% in 2025. The current account deficit is projected to improve significantly, reducing to -21.7% of GDP in 2024 from -48.2% in 2023. Inflation is expected to decline to 5.1% in 2024. The unemployment rate remains steady at 9.0%.
Tajikistan anticipates an economic growth of 6.8% in 2024, down from 8.3% in 2023, with further moderation to 4.5% in 2025. Its current account deficit is projected to improve to 0.3% of GDP in 2024, but inflation is expected to rise to 4.5% in 2024.
Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is set for moderate growth at 2.3% in 2024, with inflation projected to rise to 6.3%. The country's deficit is expected to reduce to 4.0% in 2024.
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