The dynamics of relations between Central Asian countries and major global players like Western countries and China are evolving, signaling the emergence of competition for critical resources, Eldaniz Gusseinov of the Ibn Khaldun University’s Heydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies, alongside Abakhon Sultonazarov, IWPR Central Asia Regional Director, shared on Cabar.asia. With the recent upheavals in Ukraine and the consequent reconfiguration of the global order, Western nations are increasingly seeking alternative suppliers of rare earth metals to diminish reliance on Russia and China.
As Western powers pivot towards renewable energy sources to reduce dependency on Russian oil and gas, they face the challenge of growing reliance on China, the dominant player in this market. Consequently, Central Asian countries are gaining significance in the rare earth metals market due to their abundant mineral reserves. However, this newfound attention to Central Asia's resources has only recently surfaced, as not all deposits in the region have been fully explored.
Central Asia possesses a substantial portion of global mineral reserves, including 38.6% of manganese ore, 30.07% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc, 8.7% of titanium, and other materials. Central Asia boasts substantial reserves of critical resources, with significant percentages of global reserves found within its borders. Kazakhstan, in particular, holds promise in challenging China's dominance in rare earth elements, in extracting metals like scandium, yttrium, and 15 lanthanides.
These metals find extensive use in various industries such as computer manufacturing, turbine production, and automobile construction. The United States and the European Union are exploring investment opportunities in Kazakhstan to diversify their supply chains away from China. Presently, the United States heavily relies on imports of yttrium and scandium, while the European Union sources 98% of its rare metals from China.
Critical resources encompass natural reserves crucial for the economic and technological advancement of nations. These resources are characterized by their scarcity, the complexity involved in their extraction and processing, and the concentration of their deposits in specific geographic locations. Key examples of critical resources include rare earth elements (REE), strategic metals, and other minerals.
The competition for critical resources in Central Asia is evident in the changing strategies of major powers. The U.S., through initiatives like the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia (ERICEN) and the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, aims to bolster its presence in the region. China, on the other hand, has long-standing relationships and investments in Central Asia, particularly evident in agreements such as the strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and Chinese companies in the uranium industry. As the U.S. and China vie for influence, Central Asian countries find themselves at the center of a geopolitical contest for resource access and control.
The strategic advantages of both China and the U.S. in this competition are apparent. China benefits from geographical proximity, substantial investment potential, and long-standing relations with Central Asian countries. Conversely, the U.S. leverages its global influence, partnerships, and soft power to present itself as an alternative to China, emphasizing innovation, democratic values, and ethical standards.
Central Asia's Role in Rare Earth Metal Geopolitics
Central Asian countries are emerging as key players in the geopolitics surrounding rare earth metals, with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan emphasizing the importance of prioritizing the development of these resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted assessments between 2012 and 2016, identifying 384 rare earth mineral deposits across Central Asia, notably in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Tien Shan and Pamir regions are particularly promising for exploration due to their abundant untapped resources.
Central Asia boasts significant quantities of rare metals like monazite, zircon, apatite, xenotime, pyrochlore, allanite, and columbite, concentrated in areas such as the Kazakh steppe, Tien Shan, and Pamir mountains. These metals are crucial components in various industries, including electronics, energy, aerospace, and agriculture, underlining their vital role in global technological advancement and economic development.
While exact data on Central Asia's share of global rare earth metals is unavailable, analysis of export data from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan suggests their substantial contribution to the global supply chain. Currently, the export of ores, metals, and precious stones from Central Asia is not monopolized by a single actor like China but is distributed unevenly among major consumers, with Asia's share steadily rising.
Despite China's active presence in the region, it does not currently control rare earth metal mining in Central Asia, as noted by Wesley Hill from the International Tax and Investment Center. However, China remains dominant in the extraction and processing of these resources globally.
However, Central Asian countries face a complex array of risks and opportunities amidst this competition. The demand for critical resources offers economic development opportunities, including job creation and infrastructure development. Yet, overreliance on external actors could compromise sovereignty and environmental integrity. Additionally, geopolitical rivalry and market fluctuations pose challenges to stability and autonomy.
Central Asia's strategic importance in the global supply chain for critical resources is undeniable. As great power competition intensifies, the region's potential to diversify supply chains and challenge China's dominance presents both promise and peril.
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