Recent reports from EastFruit analysts have highlighted a surprising downturn in onion prices across Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, defying expectations amidst the onset of the new onion harvest in Central Asia’s southern territories. While such a trend might seem counterintuitive, experts point to a confluence of factors driving this market shift.
Last week witnessed a decline in wholesale onion prices in Moldova, Poland, and Uzbekistan, while Ukraine's market remained relatively stable, albeit with a decrease in the lowest price points attributed to an influx of lower-quality onions.
Andriy Yarmak, an economist with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), attributes this market behavior to the cyclical nature of onion pricing, a pattern common among agricultural commodities.
"Typically, prices peak towards the season’s end, drawing attention and attracting newcomers to the market," explains Yarmak. "However, these newcomers often base their strategies on incomplete or outdated information, leading to suboptimal outcomes."
Yarmak elaborates on the challenges faced by these resellers, ranging from high initial purchase costs to escalating storage expenses and the risk of dealing with onions unsuitable for long-term storage. These factors collectively diminish the profitability of onion resale ventures, particularly following high-price seasons.
EastFruit’s analysis indicates that as mid-March approaches, onion prices in Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Poland have plateaued, reminiscent of levels observed during the harvest season. In Moldova, prices remain slightly elevated but are on a downward trajectory. However, the financial viability of onion storage this season appears bleak, with storage losses hovering around 10% and ancillary costs further eroding potential gains.
Yarmak identifies overproduction as a fundamental issue driving onion price volatility, exacerbated by expanded cultivation areas and the influx of novice farmers into the market.
"Onions exhibit low demand elasticity," he notes. "High or low prices do not significantly impact consumption, leading to substantial price fluctuations."
Despite this observed pattern, EastFruit emphasizes that onion pricing is influenced by a myriad of unpredictable factors, including climatic conditions, trade policies, geopolitical conflicts, and economic shifts. This season, factors such as Egypt’s export ban, summer droughts, and wet autumns in primary onion-growing regions have mitigated price declines.
While onion prices may currently be on the decline in certain regions, the complexities of agricultural markets suggest that future fluctuations will remain unpredictable, shaped by a range of external factors.
In February, analysts at EastFruit forecasted that Uzbekistan could clinch a position among the top five largest onion exporters worldwide by the conclusion of the 2023/24 season. This projection stems from a surge in onion production and the imposition of export bans by key onion-exporting nations. While traditionally ranking within the top ten onion exporters, Uzbekistan has seized a notable opportunity in the ongoing season due to export bans from countries like Egypt and a temporary ban from Türkiye, which was later rescinded. These constraints have created openings for Uzbekistan to capitalize on the global onion market.
The 2023/24 season in Uzbekistan has witnessed record-breaking onion production, resulting in a significant decline in prices. As of January 2024, onion prices were reportedly 40% lower than during the harvest period, presenting challenges for local traders who had procured onions with the intention of resale at a profit.
To offset losses, traders are actively seeking buyers beyond conventional markets, leading to an overflow of Uzbek onions in wholesale markets in Poland since January 2024. The initial shipments of the new onion harvest from southern regions of Uzbekistan are anticipated to commence in late March 2024, potentially further augmenting the already ample supply.
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